The start of baseball’s offseason has been comparatively slow. While some big names—like Craig Kimbrel, Eugenio Suarez, Sonny Gray, and Eduardo Rodriguez—have switched teams, the league is still awaiting the decisions of Shohei Ohtani and fellow countryman Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The first seismic event of the hot stove season finally happened on Wednesday night, and it was quite powerful. This Juan Soto is a Yankee now.
One of the game’s brightest young stars, Soto’s arrival in the Bronx left many New York Mets fans perplexed as to why their team chose to sit on the bench rather than take advantage of such a clear talent.
Since Soto played for the Washington Nationals for the first four plus years of his career, it’s understandable that Mets supporters, who witnessed firsthand his rise to the top of the game, would wonder why the team didn’t move more quickly to sign a player with his immense power and exceptional plate discipline.
Any team, especially the Mets, who have Brandon Nimmo as their only reliable outfield producer heading into the 2024 campaign, would benefit from having Juan Soto in their starting lineup on a regular basis. So why is Soto being fitted for pinstripes right now? Let’s examine this.
1. The Mets’ biggest need is pitching
Even an owner like Steve Cohen, with a bankroll akin to Scrooge McDuck, can’t just snap his fingers and acquire any player he desires. The Mets signed Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer to big contracts in the previous two offseasons, spending lavishly, and it’s reasonable to say that those moves didn’t immediately pay off as fans had hoped.
That the Mets would once again be the biggest mover and shaker of the offseason is unlikely given that Cohen and new president of baseball operations David Stearns have championed a philosophy of patience and player development since Stearns was officially brought on in September.
Even if they aren’t blockbuster-level upgrades, the Mets undoubtedly need to make improvements after placing fourth in the N.L. East with a 75-87 record. The outfield isn’t by far the most important need, though. Pitching is about to begin.
Kodai Senga is the ace of a staff that currently appears to be very thin after his outstanding rookie season. Despite not living up to their Hall of Fame pedigrees while wearing orange and blue, Scherzer and Verlander, who were both dealt at the deadline this past season, were still net positives.
The Mets nominal #2 is Jose Quintana; beyond that, who knows? Although Tylor Megill and David Peterson are seasoned Mets players, we’ve seen enough from them to conclude that neither offers much more potential than a fifth starter. Mike Vasil is highly regarded by many, but he is far from a sure thing, as evidenced by his 5.30 ERA in AAA last season.
The Mets need to add at least two quality arms to their roster in order to be competitive in The next year and beyond. The team is all in on signing Japanese export Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but there are still a ton of other starters that Mets fans would be thrilled to have in the lineup, including Jordan Montgomery, Blake Snell, Corbin Burnes, Dylan Cease, and Tyler Glasnow, who could be available via trade or free agency.
Ronny Mauricio, Drew Gilbert, Luisangel Acuna, and Jett Williams are all young players that could potentially improve the Mets lineup. It’s not the same story for the pitching team. The Mets would have been better off getting as much pitching as they could, but Soto would have been a huge addition.
2. The Mets couldn’t offer a package that would have enticed San Diego
Young pitching is what the Padres coveted above all else, and the Mets’ farm system lacks it, so they made that clear to teams interested in acquiring Soto.
In order to complete the trade of Soto and fellow outfielder Trent Grisham with the Padres, the Yankees had to send five players. Four pitchers and no older than 28 are among those five. The star of the show is right-hander Michael King, who advanced from the bullpen to start for the Yankees in the late innings, going on to allow just five runs in five starts in September.
Jhony Brito and Randy Vasquez have also shown the ability to start and pitch in relief, which gives the Padres added flexibility in the likely event that they lose reigning N.L. Cy Young winner Blake Snell and All-Star closer Josh Hader to free agency. Drew Thorpe, who finished the year with the Yankees’ AA affiliate, has already been ranked as the sixth-best prospect in San Diego’s farm system according to MLB.com.
The Mets have nothing close to offer, and three of those pitchers have already been tested in Major League Baseball. It’s unlikely that even the Mets’ top pitching prospects, Mike Vasil and Blade Tidwell, who are ranked eighth and ninth in MLB.com’s rankings, would have been enough to convince Padres GM A.J. Preller. Even if they were, Cohen and Stearns’ shared “build from within” philosophy would be violated if the farm system were completely dismantled for the sake of a single player and the franchise’s long-term goals.
3. There’s no guarantee of keeping Soto beyond this upcoming season
There is just one more season left on Soto’s contract. Is it worthwhile to spend a lot of money on a player who might only be needed for a single year? The Mets can’t really consider themselves among the select few teams that are poised to contend for a World Series after what happened to them last season.
Customers of Scott Boras usually take a stab at being free agents, and word around Major League Baseball is that Soto won’t be an exception. At this time next year, he anticipates having a long list of suitors vying for his services, especially in light of the staggering totals he’s probably going to post by hitting to Yankee Stadium’s short right field porch.
Nothing has been done by Boras or Soto to refute the reports that Soto plans to become a free agent. Could Soto possibly enjoy being a member of the most decorated sports team? Indeed. After working in San Diego and Washington for his career, could he enjoy being on the biggest stage? Yes. Could playing for the Yankees be the ideal way to hide the fact that he can’t grow a mustache? Who knows! It’s possible that Soto signs an extension with the Yankees before becoming a free agent because he fell in love with them, but it’s not guaranteed, and it would have been even less likely if he had been traded to the Mets.
The Mets have recent experience with renter’s remorse, having shipped first-round pick Pete Crow-Armstrong to the Cubs in exchange for 47 tumultuous games of the Javy Baez Experience. Crow-Armstrong is now the top-ranked prospect in Chicago, and after a cup of coffee at the big league level in September, he’s ready to make a real impact in 2024.
I’m sure the Mets will try to acquire Soto in 2024 if the Yankees are unable to extend him. The only thing that will be needed is money, which Steve Cohen has plenty of. Giving up prospects for a player who might leave after this season isn’t the wise move, though. Not now, not for this franchise.
David Stearns will manage this team well, in my opinion. It’s the moves you choose not to make sometimes.