The Cowboys of Dallas (-3.5) game versus the Philadelphia has so many intriguing storylines for Dallas. In some ways it feels like a make-or-break game for the Cowboys. In other ways, it could be overcome by what happens by the end of the season. Let’s explore that.
This game could make or break the Cowboys’ hopes of winning the NFC East. The Cowboys’ chances of winning the division and earning the first seed in the NFC playoffs are bleak if they lose this week. So, it really is a “do or die” situation.
According to my friend Tom Ryle, the Cowboys’ psychological success depends on it. The Cowboys would fall to second-tier status after suffering yet another defeat at home to the Eagles and the 49ers earlier in the season. They would now doubt their ability to defeat the 49ers or the Eagles, which would probably be necessary in the postseason. It’s difficult to recover from that.
However, the Cowboys have a chance to lose and still bounce back. They would be fired up going into the playoffs if they lose to the Eagles and then dominate the Bills, Dolphins, and Lions in addition to an anticipated victory over the Commanders. particularly after victories over the Lions and Dolphins. If the Cowboys defeated the Bills, Dolphins, and Lions, they would still have doubts about the 49ers and Eagles, but they would also be full of confidence. That would be a fantastic way to start the postseason.
It feels very much like make-or-break, so keep in mind that a loss doesn’t always mean the end of the Cowboys season. Who wants to consider losing to the Eagles, though?
For this game, the Cowboys are at home, where they completely dominate opposition teams. They are playing an Eagles team coming off a disappointing loss and are riding a four-game winning streak. The Cowboys are 3.5-point favorites over the Eagles at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Now let’s examine some numbers and facts.
Overall the Cowboys and Eagles have played 129 games against each other, with four of those being playoff games. The Cowboys lead the regular season 70-55, and lead 3-1 in the post-season. Of course the Cowboys lost the last meeting in Week 9 of this season at Philly, 28-23. Dallas has won four of the last six games between the two.
What then is the reason behind the Cowboys’ stellar season, particularly at home? There are many variables at work, but Dak Prescott’s performance is by far the most important one. At 126.8, the Cowboys quarterback has the second-highest home passer rating. In six games at home, he has eighteen touchdown passes. Going back to the Cowboys’ final home game against the Eagles on Christmas Eve in 2022, Prescott passed for over 250 yards and had a passer rating of at least 100 in each of those seven games. That streak has only ever been matched by Brett Favre.
This season, Prescott has thrown multiple touchdown passes in each of his home games; at this point, it is the longest streak in the NFL. Prescott hopes to tie Tony Romo’s seven-game streak of multiple touchdown passes with the Cowboys.
Throughout his career, Prescott has a 67.3% completion percentage, 22 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions against the Eagles. In the last three Eagles games, Prescott has thrown 11 touchdowns and picked up one interception.
Throughout his career, Prescott has a 30-8 record against the NFC East. With Tom Brady’s 31 division victories, that is the quarterback’s second-highest total since 2016. With 132 touchdowns overall, more than any other quarterback since 2016, Prescott surpasses Russell Wilson’s 129.
Aside from DaRon Bland’s season-high five pick-sixes, the Cowboys offense has been equally prolific with the rest of the defense contributing defensive scores.
This year, Dallas has five times scored forty points. In each of their six home games, they have scored over thirty points. They would become the first NFL team to score 30 points or more in each of their first seven home games of the season if they do so on Sunday. They would become the first team in history to score 40 points or more in five straight home games if they win on Sunday.
Since head coach Mike McCarthy has been in Dallas, they’ve had 16 games with 40+ points, the most in the NFL. The next closest teams are the Bills and the Chiefs with eight each.
The Cowboys lead the league in both points per game (32.3) and 10-play drives (35). With a third-down conversion rate of 48.5%, Dallas is ranked second. Prescott leads the league in both completion percentage (72.8%) and passer rating (117.2) on third down, which accounts for that figure.
Quick statistics:
- With 205 pressures per PFF, the Cowboys are tied for second place. With 196 pressures allowed, the Eagles rank fifth among teams.
- Micah Parsons would be just the second player since 1982 in their first three seasons to record 13 sacks this season. Reggie White was the other.
- In his first year, Brandon Aubrey has made 26 field goals. Richie Cunningham set the Cowboys rookie season record in 1997 with 34.
- CeeDee Lamb, over his first four seasons, has had eight games with 10+ catches, only the fifth player to ever do that. He also has a touchdown catch in four straight games. One more and he would be the first Cowboy since Dez Bryant (2013) to accomplish that.
- Jake Ferguson likes to play the Eagles. In three games he has 12 receptions for 155 yards and two scores. In the first game between the two this season he had seven catches and a score.
Team comparison stats:
Scoring Avg. (NFL rank): Dallas – 32.3 (1) Philadelphia – 27.4 (4)
Opp. Scoring Avg. (NFL rank): Dallas – 18.3 (4) Philadelphia – 24.0 (24)
Total Off. (NFL rank): Dallas – 380.4 (5) Philadelphia – 361.7 (9)
Rushing Off. (NFL rank): Dallas – 117.0 (11) Philadelphia – 126.0 (8)
Passing Off. (NFL rank): Dallas – 263.4 (3) Philadelphia – 235.7 (13)
Total Def. (NFL rank): Dallas – 287.1 (3) Philadelphia – 350.6 (22)
Rushing Def. (NFL rank): Dallas – 106.0 (12) Philadelphia – 90.3 (4)
Passing Def. (NFL rank): Dallas – 181.1 (5) Philadelphia – 260.3 (29)