Following the bye week, the Rams could adopt a different strategy with Matthew Stafford.
For the first time in the 2023 season, the Los Angeles Rams have now won three straight after defeating the Arizona Cardinals last week. With a chance to get back to.500 and into the NFC playoff picture this weekend when they visit the Cleveland Browns, they currently have a 5-6 record.
Is there a secret to the Rams’ consecutive victories and their apparent improvement on the offensive side of the ball, especially in light of Brett Rypien’s lackluster play on the other end of this winning steak while Matthew Stafford was recovering from a thumb injury?
According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Stafford’s average depth of target (ADOT) has significantly decreased since he retook the signal caller duties from Rypien. This could be due to a variety of factors, including how Sean McVay and the Rams are managing Stafford’s thumb injury and the possibility that he is still recovering to full health or whether Los Angeles conducted some self-scouting during their Week 10 bye and found they were being too aggressive in the passing game. Stafford’s ADOT for Los Angeles against the Seattle Seahawks in their second season victory was 6.1 yards. This measure was 6.0 yards versus the Cardinals last week.
Stafford’s lowest ADOT of the season is these measures from the two games; his next closest was 6.8 yards (almost a full yard longer) in the Week 2 contest against the San Francisco 49ers. Stafford’s average target distance in the season opener against the Seahawks was 11.3 yards down the field. According to PFF, CJ Stroud of the Houston Texans and Jordan Love of the Green Bay Packers lead the NFL in ADOT at 9.6. At 8.4 yards, Stafford is presently tied for tenth place with Desmond Ridder of the Atlanta Falcons and Geno Smith of Seattle.
What impact has this had on the Rams offense, then? Stafford’s adjusted completion rate, a statistic that takes raw completion % and removes dropped passes, misdirected throws, and incompletions that aren’t the quarterback’s fault, has greatly benefited from the more cautious passing game strategy.
In terms of adjusted completion %, Stafford was one of the NFL’s least accurate quarterbacks before LA’s bye week. Just a few weeks ago, he was sixth in the NFL in this crucial statistic, behind players like Desmond Ridder, Justin Fields, and Zach Wilson.
Stafford has had two of his best performances in terms of adjusted completion rate during the past two weeks, despite the fact that his average depth of target has reached its lowest point. It is typical for these metrics to have an inverse connection. In general, a pass becomes harder to complete the farther it travels down the field. With an adjusted completion percentage of 83.9% against the Cardinals last week, Stafford’s performance was his second most accurate yet. This is only second to his first-ever game versus Arizona, in which he made 84.2% of his throws on target. Stafford scored at 70.4% in the victory over Seattle in Week 11, which is encouraging given that he has already had four performances below 70 this season.
It’s important to monitor this statistic to see if the Rams become more aggressive in the passing game while Stafford’s thumb heals completely, or if Los Angeles is making a deliberate shift to increase their passing efficiency. In any case, the Rams have found success with this strategy, so it makes sense for them to stick with it as long as they are winning games and producing high offensive output.
Can they defeat the Browns this weekend and win three in a row?