Les Snead’s past does not indicate that he wants to pay top dollar for a guard, despite the Rams landing a steal in the trade.
Kevin Dotson was acquired by the Los Angeles Rams for almost nothing at the beginning of the season, but a new contract for Dotson in 2024 will set them back a significant amount of money. It is unlikely that the upcoming free agent would receive the franchise tag, so the Rams will have to pay a substantial contract to prevent him from exploring his options. Since L.A. was unwilling to do that for former right guard Austin Corbett, will general manager Les Snead present Dotson with an alternative offer?
How much would it cost, too?
The 2023 season of Kevin Dotson
Dotson, a Louisiana native selected in the fourth round of the 2020 NFL Draft, played three seasons for the Pittsburgh Steelers, starting 26 games between 2021 and 2022. Last season, he participated in every snap for the Steelers.
However, after signing free agent Isaac Seumalo to a three-year contract after seven years with the Philadelphia Eagles, and just one year after signing James Daniels to a similar deal, Pittsburgh decided to take a different approach. The Pittsburgh Steelers sent Dotson to the Rams in exchange for fourth and fifth round picks in the fifth and sixth rounds, sensing an opportunity to move him to a team in need of a player at that position. Essentially, Sean McVay had competition at guard for Tremayne Anchrum and Joseph Noteboom after L.A. made day three pick swaps in each of the following two years.
With no competition in camp, Anchrum was expected to win the job; however, that all changed with the Dotson trade.
Following three weeks of inactivity, Dotson started playing right guard full-time opposite Steve Avila in the Week 4 overtime victory over the Indianapolis Colts. Since then, Dotson has continued to start and has been rated as one of the NFL’s best guards—or, if you’re reading PFF, the best guard hands down.
If teams think he can stay as good as he has been over the last eight games, Dotson, an unrestricted free agent in 2024, could punch his ticket to become one of the NFL’s highest-paid guards.
In 511 snaps, he has only been held accountable for two QB hits, two sacks, and four hurries.
How much might he cost?
It’s difficult to project Dotson’s contract because it’s difficult to predict what teams will genuinely think of his 2023 season and potential moving forward. Will he continue to be successful, and could that help any offensive line? The Steelers didn’t want him to start for them just three months ago, but now he is the NFL’s highest-graded guard according to PFF.
There is an inconsistency in something.
It doesn’t imply that PFF is correct or incorrect. It simply indicates that something isn’t adding up. He might have been a terrible fit for the Rams or exactly the right fit for the Steelers. The NFL is known for its rollercoaster, and it’s possible that he will perform worse in the upcoming season than he has done this one.
After being named an All-Pro guard by the Panthers in 2017, Andrew Norwell used that success to sign a huge five-year, $66.5 million contract with the Jaguars, making him the highest-paid player in the league for his position. However, Norwell regressed to average, and the deal was deemed to be a significant overpay. This does not imply that Dotson will return to replacement level; rather, it simply means that any team must be wary of any player experiencing a value explosion during their contract year.
Take Corbett, for example.
Just one year after he narrowly missed out on the first round, Austin Corbett had a similar career after the Rams plucked him from the Browns. Although Corbett developed into a reliable starter on the inside of Los Angeles’ offensive line, the team decided not to bid on him instead of going back to the cheap market.
After agreeing to a three-year, $26.25 million deal with the Panthers, which works out to just over $8 million per season, Corbett has emerged as one of the team’s few highly regarded offensive linemen.
Is Corbett overpriced or a good deal? Perhaps it simply depends on which week you ask the Panthers about him. Although Corbett has been reliable, his $8 million salary isn’t enabling Carolina to win games, and he has missed a lot of time due to injuries this season. Is there a position more vital for the Panthers to spend that money on than right guard?
On his current trajectory, Dotson could push his way into the $8–$10 million per year range, but he won’t be able to match the $20 million per season earned by Quenton Nelson and Chris Lindstrom or surpass $15 million like Zack Martin and Brandon Scherff.
Guards like Nate Davis and Alex Capp, who don’t have particularly strong resumes, have recently signed deals worth more than $8 million annually. Given the abundance of teams with cap space and subpar offensive lines, Dotson might be able to persuade one of them to allow him to play in the $10 million range.
Will Rams do it?
In addition to letting Corbett walk in 2022, Los Angeles also allowed David Edwards to leave in free agency the following year.
When the Rams let Corbett go, they didn’t have a lot of money to spend—at least not according to their original plan, which ended up wasting a lot of money on guys like Allen Robinson and a Bobby Wagner rental. Instead, it made more sense for them to go with Coleman Shelton and Bobby Evans on the cheap, with injuries eventually forcing Oday Aboushi and others to fill in.
Corbett’s non-resignation proved costly in 2022, but they were able to quickly recover at the position in 2023 without needing to make a significant move.
Noteboom and Brian Allen, the only offensive linemen that Snead has recently bothered to re-sign, are now backups and have proven to be a financial burden. Will the Rams be motivated to contend to keep Dotson away from offers that might exceed $10 million annually as a result of this, or will it deter them?
Even though Corbett contributed to the Rams’ Super Bowl victory, the team refused to give him a $8 million contract. Will they be willing to spend more money on Dotson following a 13-game trial?
Conversely, the Rams don’t currently have any guards in the works.
2022 third-round selection Logan Bruss has been a member of the practice squad all year long. On the left, Avila already holds a job. Allen isn’t likely to push Shelton back anytime soon, and Anchrum—who is also a free agent—wasn’t trusted to start at right guard. The Rams will have to find a replacement if they let Dotson go. What would prevent them from simply trying to retain Dotson if there was any consideration to do that during free agency?
If nothing else, at least he would be the expensive player they are familiar with rather than the unknown player who might end up being the next Andrew Norwell.
However, these actions never occur in a vacuum. The fan base that believes the Rams will retain Dotson regardless of the cost—even if it means hitting the $10 or $12 million salary cap in 2025—will have to respond to the question, “Who do you cut to keep him?”
Indeed, a number of older players appear to be nearing the end of their contracts, and the Rams could have a ton of salary cap space in a few years. That still implies, though, that having a costly right guard—something that Snead and McVay have never planned for—means that you won’t have an expensive player at another position.
It’s a luxury to pay a guard that much, so if Dotson has moved into the upper echelon of his position, if he convinces just one team to make him an offer he can’t refuse, do the L.A. Rams have that luxury?
We will find out in a few short months. A lot can change in a few short months.