Sure, his stats support that, but is it enough?
The Los Angeles Rams offense is clearly faltering, and this warrants careful examination. Given that the NFL is a quarterback-driven league, Matthew Stafford is under a lot of intense scrutiny in Los Angeles. Is he getting older? Are his gunslinger swagger and strong arm—two of his most sought-after qualities—truly in doubt?
The Rams offense has a lot of issues, and while Staff must take some of the blame, I don’t think he’s washing up or leaving SoFi Stadium. As usual, the answers are not straightforward. mainly for two reasons.
One, his physical skills are aging naturally, but neither they nor his gun-slinging approach and attitude are deteriorating at an alarming rate. Even though he isn’t a real threat with his feet, he is still very much a live man with the arm strength to make all the throws.
Two, there is a 2024–2025 contractual tie between the Rams and Staff. Before the cap numbers begin to move in favor of Los Angeles, it will be 2026. Making the case to eat all that dead money is really challenging. Indeed, there is a notable decrease in ’25, but it still represents a substantial portion. Furthermore, the trades made after June 1st don’t yield the large profits you would hope for when a costly player is moved.
But set all of that aside. Set aside this moment to enjoy the Thanksgiving holiday. This piece discusses Matthew Stafford’s legacy as his playing days are coming to an end and how, statistically speaking, he fits into the discussion surrounding his induction into the NFL Hall of Fame.
After 15 years of play, Staff has now appeared in 200 NFL games. And as a result, a wealth of statistics has been gathered. Even though statistics can be tedious to read, they are, at the very least, a reliable source of information about performance in the field. Pro Football Reference’s nine statistical categories and an additional Super Bowl appearance listing are shown below. Staff’s career averages are used to project his numbers, with a bias toward the lower end.
Is Matthew Stafford a candidate for the NFL Hall of Fame?
Games played/started
Tom Brady – 335 / 333
Brett Favre – 302 / 298
Drew Brees – 287 / 286
Active
t120. Aaron Rodgers – 231 / 224
t250. (approx.) Mathew Stafford – 200 / 200
Staff still has three strong seasons left, and there’s no reason to doubt that. He would surpass Earl Morrall in the Top 5 quarterback games played with 55 more, and since all of them would probably be starting quarterbacks, he would also rank among the top five in career quarterback starts. Of course, it’s still unclear how much an injury might affect that. Stafford’s physical toughness has long been praised; if he isn’t on the field, it’s an injury, not a hurt.
Passes attempted
Tom Brady – 12,050
Drew Brees – 10,551
Brett Favre – 10,169
Active
10. Aaron Rodgers – 7661
11. Matthew Stafford – 7437
Stafford will throw the ball for that team wherever he plays. Throughout his career, he has averaged 37.1 passes per game; however, this year, that figure is marginally lower. He would pass Dan Marino, Eli Manning, and Ben Roethlisberger with those 9362 attempts if he averages 35 throws per game over his final 55 games. This would put him in fifth place behind the Top 3 listed and Payton Manning. Aaron Rodgers is the only quarterback in competition right now, and the two of them will remain there for a while until the next generation of elite quarterbacks has enough experience to be statistically competitive.
Passes completed
Tom Brady – 7753
Drew Brees – 7142
Brett Favre – 6300
Active
8. Aaron Rodgers – 5001
11. Matthew Stafford – 4691
Reiterating, Aaron Rod is Stafford’s sole genuine rival ascending the all-time list; the other NFL quarterbacks are simply too far behind. If one were to estimate Staff’s totals, he would come in at 5856 and move up to #5, passing Matt Ryan. That’s roughly his recent career average of 23 completions per 55 games.
Completion percentage
Drew Brees – 67.7
Chad Pennington – 66.0
Matt Ryan – 65.6
Active
1. Joe Burrow – 68.0
33. Mathew Stafford – 63.1
At this point in his career, Stafford’s strength in this category is neither now nor will it ever be. He’s always had a tendency to throw sidearm, sending the ball sailing into his face. Additionally, he may be prone to whipping the ball with his arm alone rather than stepping through due to his naturally strong arm. I’m not sure if a quarterback should be benched based on three to five incomplete passes per 100 passes over the course of 200 games.
Passing yards
Tom Brady – 89,214
Drew Brees – 80,358
Payton Manning – 71,940
Active
9. Aaron Rodgers – 59,055
11. Matthew Stafford – 54,342
Most likely the hardest category to advance in. He would need to play all 55 games at 273 yards per to reach 69,202 and secure a Top 5 spot. He won’t move up the list much with that little margin for error until he starts to target Phillip Rivers, Dan Marino, and Matt Ryan in the middle of 2025.
Yards per attempt
Otto Graham – 9.0
Sid Luckman – 8.4
Norm Van Brocklin – 8.2
Active
3. Jimmy Garoppolo – 8.2
t50. Mathew Stafford – 7.3
Who says the old guys used to play in a cloud of dust and three yards? Luckman retired in 1950, Van Brocklin in 1960, and Graham in 1955. Many quarterbacks from earlier eras rank highly in this category; back then, the game was played differently, with fewer and longer passes. Although many of the younger players will eventually revert to his number as their attempts increase, Staff, like many quarterbacks of his era, is unlikely to ever crack the Top 20 of this group. Which quarterback, in your opinion—Stanford, or someone like Jimmy Winston (7.7) or Garoppolo (8.2)?
Passing touchdowns
Tom Brady – 649
Drew Bees – 571
Payton Manning – 531
Active
5. Aaron Rodgers – 475
11. Matthew Stafford – 342
Even in Los Angeles, where it seems the Rams are always content to settle for red zone field goals, Stafford has been averaging 1.7 touchdowns per game over the course of his 15 years. Thus, while 95 additional scoring throws may seem high, it is still a reasonable projection. With 435 touchdowns in all, he would rank sixth all-time. Following him by fifteen seconds, Russell Wilson appears revitalized in Denver under Sean Payton’s leadership.
Passes intercepted
Brett Favre – 336
George Blanda – 277
John Hadl – 268
Active
45. Mathew Stafford – 177
68. Andy Dalton – 144
Stafford and the category of shame are far down the list. Even if he throws an additional.8 per game, unless he truly breaks down, that extra 44 would still trail legends like Peyton Manning, Fran Tarkenton, John Elway, and many more.
Game winning drives/fourth quarter comebacks
Tom Brady – 58/46
Payton Manning – 54/43
Drew Brees – 53/36 / Ben Roethlisberger – 53/41
Active
7. Matthew Stafford – 44/35
10. Russell Wilson – 39/31
There may be many more of these efforts given how the Rams are struggling and how close every game is. The company is more significant than the number in this category, in my opinion. All ten of the candidates for the Hall of Fame have either been elected when they become eligible or are already in.
Super Bowl appearances
Tom Brady – 10
John Elway – 5
Terry Bradshaw/Joe Montana – 4
Active
Patrick Mahomes – 3
Russell Wilson – 2
Matthew Stafford – 1 tied with 43 others
A select few are given multiple chances to win the Lombardi Trophy. Even fewer people are on the list of winners who took home the grand prize. 21 players have only one win, while 17 have multiple victories. Stafford profited greatly from his one trip.
What is Matthew Stafford’s legacy after 200 games? Does he have a claim to the Hall of Fame?
To be sure, the article makes a lot of assumptions in order to rank Stafford in the Top 5 of the majority of statistical categories and predict his future stats. His career averages are the only basis for the extrapolations, and I don’t think three more seasons—55 games is the number I settled on—are especially far-fetched. However, based solely on his current statistics, Stafford compares to and/or exceeds numerous Hall of Fame players.
His one Super Bowl victory doesn’t help either, but that is still a small and exclusive club. Is Stafford a better fit among the one-time winners like Jeff Hostetler, Brad Johnson, Nick Foles, and Cinderellas? Is he deserving of recognition alongside Brett Favre, Johnny Unitas, and Kenny Stabler, the prominent group of Hall of Fame inductees?
I believe that Staff will be remembered as one of the best NFL quarterbacks of all time, having built a career connecting some of the league’s most successful passers to a new generation of players (Mahomes, Jackson, Goff, etc.) who will play a major role in the upcoming “Who’s in?” debate for the Hall of Fame. John Matthew Stafford ought to be admitted on the first try.