Adam Ottavino made the decision to forego his option to remain with the Mets through 2024 at a salary of $6.75 million back at the beginning of this summer. Following his experiment with free agency, the 38-year-old reliever ultimately agreed to re-sign with the Mets for a $4.5 million, one-year contract. Between those choices, he also appeared on SNY a few times, where he voiced his desire to play for a contender and his reservations about the goals the Mets were attempting to achieve this season. It was all a little strange.
But now here we are, with Ottavino about to start his third campaign in the Mets bullpen. His debut was in 2022 and it was unquestionably outstanding. He tossed 65.2 innings with a 2.85 FIP and a 2.06 ERA that year. He wasn’t quite as good the previous year, with a 4.52 FIP and 3.21 ERA in 61.2 innings. From 6.2 percent in 2022 to 11.1 percent in 2023, his walk rate increased dramatically. His strikeout percentage decreased to 23.8 percent from 30.6 percent. Additionally, there were a few more home runs than there had been in 2022.
Ottavino’s average fastball velocity decreased from 2022 to 2023 by slightly over a mile per hour, but this was also the case from 2021 to 2022 and was not correlated with inferior performance.
Ottavino’s age and last year’s underlying metrics make it unsurprising that all projection algorithms predict an even higher ERA for him this season. To be more precise, he is now hanging around a 4.00 ERA according to the many FanGraphs models. However, relievers are usually unpredictable from year to year, so it wouldn’t be shocking if the results were much better or worse than expected.
Ottavino is presently listed as the team’s primary setup man by Roster Resource, which explains his role in the Mets bullpen this season. Though it’s not difficult to envision a situation in which he isn’t in that capacity, particularly if Brooks Raley continues to play as well as he has over the previous two seasons and Jake Diekman maintains the qualities that made him a strong reliever in Tampa Bay last year. Despite being left-handed pitchers, they don’t differ much in their platoon splits.
That wouldn’t completely eliminate the necessity for Ottavino to pitch high-leverage innings, but at least it seems possible to bridge the gap between the starting pitchers for the Mets and Edwin Díaz, who will be back.