Four years ago, Patrick Mahomes led Kansas City to three touchdowns in the final six minutes and more, propelling the Chiefs to a 31-20 victory, just as the San Francisco 49ers were getting ready to win their first Super Bowl in 25 years.
In the previous two seasons, the Niners (12-5) have lost on the road to the Rams and Eagles in the NFC championship game, falling just short of making it back to the big game for a chance at revenge.
This time, they’re in a better situation.
“We’re right where we want to be,” Niners left tackle Trent Williams said. “We’re the No. 1 seed.”
They will thus get to enjoy wild-card weekend along with the rest of us, and if they win the playoffs, they will have the opportunity to host the conference championship game on January 28 in order to advance to Super Bowl 58 in Las Vegas the following month.
Note that the 49ers finished the season 5-3 at home, with a 33-19 loss to the top-seeded Baltimore Ravens on Christmas Day.
In Week 17, the Dallas Cowboys (12-5) led by Dak Prescott overcame the Philadelphia Eagles, who were in a slump, to win the NFC East and secure the NFC’s No. 2 seed. They defeated Detroit 20-19, partly due to a contentious ruling that disallowed the Lions’ game-winning 2-point convert with 23 seconds remaining.
In advance of another significant reunion, which will feature Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams (10-7) traveling to Detroit to play Jared Goff and the Lions (12-5) in a primetime game between the two quarterbacks who were traded for each other in 2021, the Cowboys (12-5) will host coach Mike McCarthy’s former team, the Green Bay Packers (9-8), on Sunday afternoon.
The Philadelphia Eagles (11-6), the reigning NFC champion, will be hosted by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8), captained by Baker Mayfield, Tom Brady’s replacement, on Monday night. The Eagles came into the postseason with five straight losses.
1. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (12-5). In seven Super Bowl appearances, there were five Lombardi trophies won: the Miami 38-16 in the Super Bowl 19, the Bengals 20-16 in the Super Bowl 23, the Broncos 55-10 in the Super Bowl 24, the Chargers 49-26 in the Super Bowl 29, the Ravens 34-31 in the Super Bowl 47, and the Chiefs 31-20 in the Super Bowl 54. Previous year: 13-4, No. 2 seed, divisional round victory over Dallas 19-12, wild-card round victory over the Seahawks 41-23, NFC championship loss to the Eagles 31-7.
Plan the parade: With playmakers like NFL leading rusher Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle, as well as a quarterback in Brock Purdy who can deliver the ball, San Francisco may be the hardest offensive in the league to stop. With players at every position, including DE Nick Bosa, versatile LB Fred Warner, and standout CB Charvarius Ward, the defense is nearly as good. There might not be as deep or balanced of a squad when everyone is well.
Hold the confetti: With the right side of the offensive line having trouble protecting passes this season and having poor special teams, the Niners have some gaps in their roster. During head coach Kyle Shanahan’s tenure, San Francisco’s inability to play from behind has been their worst criticism. When behind by at least eight points in the fourth quarter, the Niners are 0-38 under Shanahan, and Purdy has failed in his limited opportunities this season to lead a game-tying or game-winning drive.
“We’re here right back where you want to be with an opportunity to go do something special with the right type of guys.”— Warner.
2. DALLAS COWBOYS (12-5). Eight Super Bowl appearances yielded five Lombardi trophies: the Colts defeated the Dolphins 16–13 in Super Bowl 5, the Steelers defeated the Broncos 27–10 in Super Bowl 12, the Steelers defeated the Colts 35–31 in Super Bowl 13, the Bills defeated the Steelers 30–13 in Super Bowl 28, and the Steelers defeated the Colts 27–17 in Super Bowl 30. Last year: 12-5, No. 5 seed; lost to 49ers 19-12 in the divisional round but defeated Buccaneers 31-14 in the wild-card round.
Arrange the parade: With a little assistance from the run game, Dallas’ attack will have plenty of potency if QB-WR duo Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb can maintain their current level of success before the midseason. Dan Quinn’s defense has always valued turnovers and sacks. All the Cowboys have to do is stay out of those slumps. The greatest lift came from moving up to the No. 2 seed, which might mean two or maybe three postseason games at AT&T Stadium for a club on a 16-game winning run.
Hold the confetti: Should the offense falter like it did in the last two postseason defeats to San Francisco. One was a wild-card game played at home, while the other was a divisional away defeat to the Niners. Sometimes it’s difficult for the defense to have an effect without sacks and turnovers. End-of-game drives in a defeat at Miami and a narrow victory over Detroit are two instances of late-season play. With 23 seconds remaining, the Cowboys defeated the Lions only because a contested penalty nullified a 2-point conversion that would have given the Lions a one-point lead.
“It’s all about an excellent opportunity that we prepared ourselves and we put ourselves in this position. We earned it, deserved it and more importantly, we’re going to take advantage of it.” —coach Mike McCarthy.
3. DETROIT LIONS (12-5). One of four clubs never to have reached the Super Bowl. 9–8 the previous year. Have lost last nine playoff appearances, most recently 26-6 to Seattle in wild-card round on Jan. 7, 2017.
Arrange the parade: Detroit tied league records with more than 325 total net yards of offense and running touchdowns in 16 games, breaking the NFL record for most touchdowns in a single season with 15 touchdowns in 15 games. In his third season, Jared Goff led the Rams to a Super Bowl trip. He finished second in the NFL in passing yards with 4,575, fourth in touchdown passes with 30, and nine games without a pick. Jahmyr Gibbs, a rookie, and David Montgomery might be the league’s top running back tandem. With nine reception games of 100 yards or more and 677 yards after the catch, Amon-Ra St. Brown led the NFL.
Discard the confetti; the Lions’ defense, which is ranked 23rd in points allowed and 27th against the pass, is hardly championship-caliber. In Weeks 16 and 18, they gave Minnesota’s journeyman quarterback Nate Mullens more than 800 yards in total passing. After suffering knee injuries in Week 18, youngster Sam LaPorta—who established an NFL rookie record for tight ends with 86 catches—and explosive receiver Kalif Raymond would be difficult to replace throughout the postseason.
“We’ve won 12 games for a reason, we’re where we’re at for a reason, let’s do it again.”—coach Dan Campbell.
4. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (9-8). Win two Lombardi trophies in two Super Bowl trips: in Super Bowl 37, against the Raiders, 48-21, and in Super Bowl 55, against the Chiefs, 31-9. Last year: 8-9, the #4 seed, lost the wild-card round to the Cowboys 31-14.
Arrange the celebration: The Bucs overcame a losing streak of six games in a row to go 5-1 in the final stretch and surpass New Orleans and Atlanta to win the division, thanks in large part to quarterback Baker Mayfield, who made the most of his chance to launch his career on a one-year, $4 million deal. In addition to setting career highs for yards and touchdowns passed, Mayfield has reduced the crucial errors that cost him in his prior stints with the Browns, Panthers, and Rams. The defense also found its mojo in the last month and finished the regular season with Tampa Bay’s first shutout since 2010.
Hold the confetti: Although head coach Todd Bowles is pleased with the offensive unit’s overall development, the Bucs have struggled offensively the previous two games, scoring only nine points in a shutout victory over the bottom-dwelling Panthers that secured a postseason trip and 13 points in a 10-point defeat to the Saints. Despite playing with ailments (ribs, ankle), Mayfield hindered the passing attack against Carolina due to his limited mobility. At little under 89 yards per game, the Bucs finished lowest in the NFL for the second consecutive year in the rush category. Their prospects of winning the playoffs are significantly reduced if they are unable to run the ball efficiently.
“We have a locker room full of guys that are comfortable being counted out. That’s when we’re most comfortable.” — Mayfield.
5. The Eagles of Philadelphia (11-6). Lost to Raiders 27-10 in Super Bowl 15, defeated Patriots 24-21 in Super Bowl 39, defeated Patriots 41-33 in Super Bowl 52, and fell short against Chiefs 38-35 in Super Bowl 57. Only one Lombardi in four Super Bowl appearances. Previous year: 16-4, #1 seed, divisional playoff victory over the Giants 38-7, NFC championship victory over the 49ers 31-7.
Arrange the parade: There is a squad from Philadelphia that went to the Super Bowl the previous season and started the season 10-1 somewhere in the locker room. In the wake of one of the worst disasters in Philadelphia sports history, things indeed appear dire for the Eagles. However, the Eagles might come as a surprise out of the NFC if head coach Nick Sirianni and quarterback Jalen Hurts can recapture the excellence that seemed to have them on track for a return trip to the Super Bowl.
Aww, hold the confetti. The Eagles finished 1–5 in the last minutes. Wide receivers DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown are both injured. With a score of 182-123, the Eagles have lost their last six games. To get to the Super Bowl, only five teams have ever won three playoff games away from home. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were the most recent club to accomplish this feat in 2020.
“We’ve got to find a way to be consistent and consistent more often and play at a high level more often. That’s what it takes to win championships. In the end, it’s about how you respond to it, and we’ve got to respond.”— Hurts.
6. RAMS LOS ANGELES (10–7) In five Super Bowl appearances, there were two Lombardi trophies won: in Super Bowl 14, the team fell to the Steelers 31-19; in Super Bowl 34, the Titans defeated the Patriots 23-16; in Super Bowl 36, the Patriots defeated the Bengals 23-20; and in Super Bowl 53, the Patriots defeated the Steelers 13-3. 5–12 last year.
Arrange the procession: There aren’t many teams with greater momentum than the Rams, who entered the postseason with seven victories in eight games and only one overtime loss on the road against Baltimore. Amidst an upgraded offensive line, Matthew Stafford has had a Pro Bowl season, passing to Super Bowl MVP Cooper Kupp. Meanwhile, record-setting rookie receiver Puka Nacua and 1,100-yard rusher Kyren Williams have shown to be great playmakers. After an offseason talent dump, coordinator Raheem Morris’ defense has outperformed everyone’s expectations, positioning the Rams to surprise opponents only two years after winning it all.
Hold the confetti: The Rams’ postseason presence is a testament to their coaching staff and best players; they just don’t have the man-for-man talent of most playoff lineups. Although the defense is inventive, it does not consistently apply pass-rushing pressure to support a secondary that is mainly average and could be easily exploited by a top quarterback. In addition, their special teams have been among the worst in the NFL, and their new kicker Brett Maher appears to be just as unreliable as he was when he was dismissed by LA earlier in the season. The Rams are ahead of schedule, and it could be challenging to maintain that advantage against a strong opponent.
“This journey that this team has been on, and all the different things that they’ve navigated, has sure made it fulfilling to be a part of it, and you want to keep it going as long as you can.” — Rams coach Sean McVay.
7. GREEN BAY PACKERS (9-8). In five Super Bowl appearances, there were four Lombardi trophies won: four victories over the Chiefs (35–10), Raiders (33–14), Patriots (35–21), Broncos (31–24), and Steelers (31–25) in Super Bowl 45. 8–9 last year.
Arrange the celebration: quarterback Jordan Love has led the team to a three-game winning run to end the regular season with 18 touchdown passes and just one interception in his last eight games. Love has 32 touchdown throws to rank second in the NFL. WRs Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed have a combined eight touchdown catches. RB In the last three games, Aaron Jones has gained at least 112 yards through the air. In the last two games, the defense has only given up one touchdown. Three players on their defense, Kenny Clark (7½), Preston Smith (8), and Rashan Gary (9), have at least 7½ sacks.
There was not a single player from Green Bay picked to the Pro Bowl. Hold the confetti. The youngest team in the NFL is the Packers. Despite a rough three-game run in which it gave up 29.3 points per game, the defense has improved in the last two games. During that run, they defeated the Carolina Panthers 33–30 on Christmas Eve; the latter team would not score another point the remainder of the campaign. K In his first campaign, Anders Carlson missed five extra points and went just 7 of 13 on field goals from 40 yards or more.
“People counted us out before the season even started. We’re resilient. We don’t back down from anybody. We’re not going to stop fighting. We’ve got a bunch of dogs in this locker room.” — Jones.