In this game, there are multiple injuries at the most crucial positions. However, the Eagles remain the superior squad.
We’ve reduced the field to two teams as we attempt to determine who the San Francisco 49ers should be ready for in the Divisional Round playoff in one week. On Sunday, we think the favorites will win. The Rams won’t have the answers for the Lions, and Dallas will prove to be too much for Green Bay to handle.
That brings us to Monday, when, should both home teams win on Sunday, the winner between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will receive a trip to Santa Clara.
The Wild Card slate’s final game is the most unpredictable. What did this Eagles team that barely made it into the playoffs show us in the second half?
They needed a Dak Prescott and Mike McCarthy implosion in the fourth quarter to win away from Arrowhead, and they also needed a Marquez Valdez-Scantling touchdown on Monday Night Football to win on the road in Dallas.
The next week, Buffalo lost in overtime 37-34 despite controlling the ball for much of the game and even holding the lead with less than two minutes remaining.
Since the Eagles were humiliated at home by the 49ers, it has been Murphy’s Law; three of those six losses have been against weaker teams. The Eagles have now lost five of their past six games. They appear lifeless and unprepared.
This year, we all watched the NFC South. In the game against the Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay failed to score a touchdown. The previous week, they had trouble scoring 13 points against the Saints at home. Prior to Week 17, the Bucs were on a four-game winning streak, but those wins came against C.J. Beathard, Jordan Love, Desmond Ridder, and Bryce Young.
It’s a coin-flipping game.
Why the 49ers will face the Buccaneers
These are the two worst teams in the NFC playoffs, in my opinion. A large part of it is related to injuries. If the Eagles and Buccaneers were playing anyone else, they would probably lose. But since they are competing, one of them must prevail.
Matt Patricia was not the most likely candidate to succeed as a defensive coordinator. Two weeks ago against the Giants once more, the Eagles allowed up 27 points to Tyrod Taylor, 31 to Kyler Murray, and 25 points—they were lucky it wasn’t more. Examining their game logs reveals that teams tend to score points against Philadelphia frequently. Neither can they tackle nor hide.
Prior to the last two weeks of the season, Tampa Bay scored 29 points in three straight games. It appeared as though they were ready to pull off a few upsets and go on an NFC playoff run. Rachaad White was finally being used out of the backfield by Tampa Bay, and Baker Mayfield was doing a good job throwing the ball.
Due primarily to their 29th-ranked pass defense, the Eagles rank 29th in defensive DVOA. A five-yard catch can become a 20-yard catch and run with the help of clips found online. It’s not good.
If the Bucs can force enough stops, they can pull off the upset. Additionally, the Eagles offense has appeared unbalanced for a few weeks. The home team benefits only when key players in Philadelphia are injured.
Why the 49ers will not play the Bucs
Todd Bowles has a particular brand of defense where he aggressively plays 1-on-1 coverage on the outside while packing the box (Tampa Bay plays with the fifth-highest number of players in the box in the NFL).
In Week 3’s game between these two teams, D’Andre Swift managed 130 yards on just 16 carries, while Philadelphia amassed 201 yards on the ground and thoroughly outran the Bucs. After that, you’re left with players like A.J. Brown playing one-on-one, and he prevails in those encounters. Brown gained 131 yards on nine receptions.
Due to a fumble by wide receiver D.J. Chark, which sent him diving into the end zone and resulted in a touchback, the Panthers were unable to score last week. A lengthy touchdown run by Carolina was also called back due to a receiver’s misalignment at the line of scrimmage. They fumbled in Bucs territory and missed a field goal as well.
Since Jalen Hurts and Brown aren’t at full strength, a decline in their output is all but inevitable. When you consider DeVonta Smith’s uncertainty, there are many reasons to be concerned.
Baker Mayfield, though, was hobbling around the field the entire time. He was immobile. Mayfield’s mobility was limited during the game due to an ankle injury, and his sore ribs also affected some of his throws.
Even with the Eagles playing as bad as they have over the last two weeks—there is no way to sugarcoat how awful they have been—a crippled Mayfield who is unable to move or force you to pay for coverage errors is not the quarterback to beat the Eagles, not this iteration of them.
There is absolutely no reason for us to have faith in the Eagles. However, this is a match-based sport. Hurts, Brown, and Smith perform best against a single-high safety, which is how Bowles’ defense will operate. As a runner, Hurts becomes more dangerous, and all Swift needs to do is force one person to miss to set up a spectacular run.
Consider the teams Tampa Bay faced during their winning run in the second half that we previously discussed. In terms of success rate and EPA per play, Tampa Bay’s defense has been among the worst in the league since Week 9. When playing non-playoff teams, they are not getting stops.
Since Week 9, Philadelphia’s EPA per play ranks ninth. With the big play, they can still make you pay. They can still move the ball down-to-down even with all of their warts and flaws in the second half of the game because their offense ranks sixth in the NFL in terms of success rate.
If it comes down to a 1-on-1 match, I’ll side with the team that executed a murderous second half.