Who will win the Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year awards, Puka Nacua and Kobie Turner?
Two of the NFL’s top rookies in terms of offense and defense are on the Los Angeles Rams. Both defensive lineman Kobie Turner and wide receiver Puka Nacua have shown promise in their respective roles. The key question that still needs to be answered with one week left in the NFL season is whether Turner and Nacua will each win Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year.
The Athletic’s Mike Sando wrote where he was leaning on Thursday. Turner and Nacua were both being considered by Sando for the rookie honors.
Argument for Offensive Rookie of the Year in Puka Nacua’s Case
There is a factor that makes Nacua’s case for Offensive Rookie of the Year more difficult than it needs to be. The reason for this is that quarterbacks typically win these awards, and CJ Stroud of the Houston Texans is having a strong season.
Sando stated the following regarding Nacua’s case:
“At one point, it seemed like Stroud was the clear favorite, and the oddsmakers still think so. After Stroud missed two games due to injury, I’m thinking about Rams receiver Puka Nacua, who is ranked fifth in receiving yardage. But it will be difficult to knock Stroud down the ballot if he plays well in Week 18 against the Colts. Nacua has helped the Rams secure a postseason berth over the last two games with 14 receptions for 282 yards.In addition, he has added 120.6 EPA, ranking third behind Hill and CeeDee Lamb, on 101 receptions for 1,445 yards and five touchdowns. Even for a rookie fifth-round pick from BYU, that is exceptional production.”
A comparable circumstance arose in 2020 when Justin Herbert defeated Justin Jefferson. Jefferson had seven receiving touchdowns and 88 receptions for 1,400 yards that season. Having said that, Herbert was 38 yards short of Andrew Luck’s record for rookie passing yards and broke the record for rookie passing touchdowns. Herbert probably would have surpassed that as well if he had played 16 games.
Herbert establishes some precedent over Jefferson. But in Week 18, Nacua will have the chance to shatter both the rookie receptions record and the rookie receiving yards record, which have stood since 1960. In that case, how do you not present Nacua with the award? This isn’t the “most valuable offensive rookie,” unlike MVP. The best rookie should win this award, and it seems obvious what would happen if Nacua broke two records instead of just one.
This season, Nacua is averaging 2.59 yards per route run. That ranks fourth behind only Odell Beckham Jr. in 2014, AJ Brown in 2019, and Jefferson in 2020 since PFF began collecting that data.
Once more, Stroud is enjoying a fantastic rookie campaign; however, in recent memory, good rookie quarterback seasons have been rather common. We haven’t seen anything like what Nacua is doing in 63 years.
The Argument for Defensive Rookie of the Year in Kobie Turner
The Wake Forest third-round pick, who leads rookies in sacks this season, wasn’t even listed as a favorite in the sports books for Defensive Rookie of the Year earlier this week. Since then, that has changed, as Turner currently has the third-best odds. Speaking of Turner’s case, Sando said,
“With nine sacks and 45 pressures on 625 snaps, Rams defensive tackle Kobie Turner tops my list. The defense is far exceeding preseason projections. Turner is ahead of Jalen Carter of the Eagles and Will Anderson of the Texans in terms of snaps, sacks, and splash plays (sacks, tackles for loss, passes defensed/batted, stops on third/fourth downs, etc.). The defensive woes of the Eagles hurt Carter’s candidacy. In my opinion, Turner is the clear winner over Anderson. In a crucial game against the Colts in Week 18, he has an opportunity to close out strong.”
Sando does a fantastic job. Although Carter is the favorite to win defensive rookie of the year, Anderson and Turner ought to be in a two-player race. Having said that, Turner has performed better all around. Turner has four pressure rankings for the season, but his first start came in Week 6. The Rams rookie is now second only to Anderson in pressures since that time. It’s important to note that Anderson plays on the edge, whereas Turner plays inside. Additionally, Turner is double-teamed 71% of the time. Jalen Carter only has a 59% double-team rate. In actuality, Turner’s double-team rate is higher than Aaron Donald’s (63 percent). Anderson has a 23 percent double-team rate when he plays on the edge.
Turner is near the top of rookies in pressures applied and leads them in sacks, but his play in the run game is what really sets him apart. Turner leads Anderson (21) and Carter (5) in run stops made so far this season with 24. Calijah Kancey, a rookie defensive lineman with 16 run stops, is the next closest player to Turner. With a run-stop percentage of 12.2 percent, Turner ranks fifth in the NFL and tops all rookies. Once more, his pass rush statistics are impressive, but his run game play is perhaps even more impressive.
It is impossible to overstate Turner’s influence on the Rams defense. Arguably, he is the best defensive lineman Aaron Donald has ever partnered with. He is undoubtedly the most productive. This season, offenses have a 41.4 percent success rate when Turner is on the field. This puts Carter (43.9%) and Anderson (42.2%) in first place.
Can the Rams win every Rookie Award?
If Puka Nacua breaks the rookie yards record, he will have a strong chance of winning Offensive Rookie of the Year. Anderson is most likely going to win even though Turner’s stock has been increasing and more people are talking about him. In the event that the Rams win both, it will be a team’s second consecutive year with both titles. With the New York Jets, Garrett Wilson and Sauce Gardner each took home rookie of the year honors.
The Rams still acquired two very talented players in the draft, even if they don’t take home any hardware. It’s just confirmation that you made the correct decision, and it’s good to recognize and honor outstanding individual efforts. We’ll see where voters land when the awards are announced before the Super Bowl.