When it comes to the next Winter Meetings, where will David Stearns set his priorities?
The New York Mets have added a few significant players going into the 2023 Winter Meetings. On a very low-risk, high-reward one-year “prove it” contract, Luis Severino has been added. Joey Wendle, who was an all-star in 2021, is a more seasoned version of Luis Guillorme. Kyle Crick and Austin Adams are strong candidates to battle for the 7th and 8th bullpen spots.
Despite these additions, the Mets won’t be competitive in 2024. Severino is a liability to make even 20 starts, much less pitch a full season. He had a 6.65 ERA in 89.1 innings pitched last season, which was not good at all. Wendle should only be a bench player who provides depth to the middle infield if everything goes as planned. Considering their limited success histories, Adams and Crick are likewise not guaranteed spots on the squad come opening day. That being said, which team areas need to be addressed and which can wait until the Mets brass leaves the Winter Meetings?
1. The Mets must have a stronger bullpen after the Winter Meetings.
Over the past few seasons, quality relief pitchers have usually signed around the winter meetings. Relief pitchers signed contracts in 2017 worth $187.75 million, with a 25-year commitment. The Mets, who signed David Robertson last year during or shortly after the Winter Meetings, Anthony Swarzak in 2017, Jeurys Familia in 2018, and others, have not refrained from following this trend. The biggest names in baseball, such as Kenley Jansen, Drew Pomeranz, and Bryan Shaw, signed during this time as well.
Edwin Diaz and Brooks Raley are the Mets’ current locks for the late innings in the bullpen. When he gets back to his 2022 form, Drew Smith is best used as a depth piece. The three most qualified candidates for long-relief roles are Phil Bickford, Grant Hartwig, and Sean Reid-Foley. This gives new manager Carlos Mendoza limited options in the eighth and ninth innings to extend a one-run lead.
The Mets must leave the Winter Meetings with at least one additional arm added to the bullpen. Relief pitchers are the most-risky investment in baseball considering all the bad contracts handed out the past few offseasons. The more risky proposition, however, is to leave the Winter Meetings empty-handed knowing all of the quality relievers have come off the board. If the trend continues from the past few offseasons, expect the Mets to strike a multi-year contract.
2. A dependable starter pitcher is needed by the Mets.
The Mets don’t have enough pitchers to last the entire season, despite the addition of Severino. Kodai Senga is the only pitcher in the rotation who can be counted on to start at least 25 games. Due to injury, Jose Quintana missed the first half of the previous season. Tylor Megill and Joey Lucchesi make the best swing duos.
Being a solid starting pitcher does not automatically translate into being the free agency star. The Mets will definitely keep chasing Yamamoto, but this does not mean that he will be in the rotation in 2024. Sandy Alderson signed Bartolo Colon, the most dependable starting pitcher in recent memory, at the 2013 and 2015 Winter Meetings. More than thirty starts a season were assured, and he would spare the bullpen from needing to get more than nine outs in a game. Big Sexy never had the most impressive stats, but he always had great starts, which spared us from seeing the horrible alternatives.
David Stearns needs to start the rotation with a good starter if he intends to follow through on his pledge to rebuild it. Anticipate a lot of rumors regarding possible fits for the Mets, as many have already been released from the board. A $200 million contract should not be the expectation for this rotational spot; instead, the pitcher must be a high caliber individual who can start every time out.
3. The Mets can postpone strengthening their depth in the outfield.
During the free agent window, Stearns and company are placing a high premium on outfield depth. Three major league options are currently available to the Mets on the 40-man roster: D.J. Stewart, Brandon Nimmo, and Starling Marte. If Ronny Mauricio wins the second base job, Jeff McNeil might end up in left field, but that’s not a given. Although they are close, Jett Williams and Drew Gilbert won’t be joining the team on opening day.
The Mets lack depth in the outfield, but they do not have to prioritize this at the Winter Meetings. In January and February, fourth outfielders are available for shorter-term, less expensive contracts. Tommy Pham signed a one-year contract worth $6 million in late January of last year’s offseason. In January 2019, Keon Broxton was acquired by the Mets from the Milwaukee Brewers via trade. Heck, during the previous offseason, Stewart signed a minor league contract. Put succinctly, Stearns is not prioritizing this role at the Winter Meetings, but he won’t rule it out if the proper opportunity arises.
The Mets only need good players to fill specific positions; they don’t need to make a big splash at the Winter Meetings. With Steve Cohen in charge, there will inevitably be rumors, but sometimes the best moves are the ones that go unnoticed. If Jordan Montgomery or Yamamoto are absent from the Mets’ Winter Meetings, we shouldn’t jump to any conclusions. For the Mets to be competitive in 2024, all 26 spots on the roster—not just the staff ace—must be important.