The NFL’s Week 12 schedule was packed with exciting games. Beginning with some highly anticipated performances on Thanksgiving, division matchups over the weekend produced some unexpected outcomes. After a difficult Week 11, it was crucial to prevail with our predictions and picks against the spread during that week.
The schedule has been reduced to a manageable 13 games for Week 13, with six teams once again on bye. Now would be a perfect time to switch back to higher dividends. Without further ado, enjoy the most recent version of our bold prediction:
NFL picks against the spread for Week 13
Game of Midweek: Seahawks at Cowboys (-8.5, 46.5 o/u)
Thursday 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video
The Seahawks’ quarterback and line play are wobbly as they enter the game. Additionally, they cannot rely on the ongoing game to improve everything. Despite Seattle’s defense having made progress, the Cowboys have been destroying teams at home all season long, and there are still enough weaknesses for a scorching Tony Pollard and Dak Prescott can keep up their recent success.
Pick: Cowboys win 34-14 and cover the spread.
Game of the Week: 49ers (-2.5, 45.5 o/u) at Eagles
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
Over the last three weeks, the Eagles have been amazing, mounting victories against the Cowboys, Chiefs, and Bills in key games. In a rematch of the NFC championship, they will get another chance at home against the 49ers, who will once again be the team putting the most pressure on them in the conference race.
Having a brief bye helps the 49ers recover from the OT-weary Eagles. Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk are all difficult to cover for Philadelphia, and Christian McCaffrey’s speed can also be a liability as a receiver. Hurts’s big plays and the run will be contained by San Francisco, while Brock Pudry exploits the Ealges’ pass defense.
Pick: 49ers win 34-31 and cover the spread.
Upset of the Week: Jets (+2.5, 34 o/u) over Falcons
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
With Desmond Ridder at home, the Falcons were able to regain their rhythm in both rushing and defense, thanks in large part to Bijan Robinson. However, Ridder isn’t the same quarterback when playing away from home, and the Falcons’ passing attack won’t pose much of a threat in this game. Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson should help the Jets rekindle their flagging offense at home.
Pick: Jets win 17-14.
Lock of the Week: Steelers (-5.5, 40 o/u) over Cardinals
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
In Week 12, the Broncos triumphed at home against a low team. A few weeks ago, the Steelers performed that at home against the Packers. Even though they are 7-4 and playing against a weak 2-10 NFC opponent, they are favored by less than a touchdown at home. Last week, the Steelers’ offense finally scored four hundred yards as a unit, and the Rams thoroughly embarrassed the Cardinals. For Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren at home, this is fantastic news. In addition, watch for Kenny Pickett to show off his skills as a passer and runner in opposition to Kyler Murray.
Pick: Steelers win 34-17 and cover the spread.
Colts (-2, 43 o/u) at Titans
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Working off Jonathan Taylor’s strong running and a more aggressive defense, Gardner Minshew is managing to produce enough plays. With Will Levis, the Titans haven’t been very effective offensively, but they follow Derrick Henry’s lead and vice versa. The Colts’ secondary defense has become stronger, and the Titans are a formidable opponent when it comes to stopping the run. Here, Levis delivers as Tennessee wins two straight in Nashville.
Pick: Titans win 20-17.
Chargers (-6, 40.5 o/u) at Patriots
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
In order to contain the pass, the Chargers were willing to give up more in the running game, which allowed them to find a little more defensive pop against the Ravens. With their injured receiving corps and questionable quarterback situation, the Patriots should be able to stay in the game for some time with that game plan. While New England is fine moving up toward the top of the draft, Justin Herbert grinds out a victory for L.A. to save face.
Pick: Chargers win 20-16 but fail to cover the spread.
Lions (-3.5, 45.5 o/u) at Saints
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
With injuries to wide receivers and Derek Carr not playing well, the Saints’ offense may be extremely thin at the position. Both the passing game with Alvin Kamara and the running game will be contained. After being upset by the Packers on Thanksgiving, the Lions will be rejuvenated and ready to play on the road. The Saints are the worst team in terms of run defense, and without Derek Carr at home, they won’t have the offensive capability to respond effectively.
Pick: Lions win 27-20 and cover the spread.
Dolphins (-9.5, 50 o/u) at Commanders
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
Before dominating the Jets on the road, the Dolphins had some problems at home against the Raiders. They are up against a Washington-based defense that is merely going through the motions and is unable to cover Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle anywhere on the field. Additionally, the Commanders are no longer the best run defense. Their pass rush and coverage have improved defensively, and they will keep Sam Howell off balance.
Pick: Dolphins win 34-17 and cover the spread.
Broncos at Texans (-3.5, 46 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Texans took advantage of the Broncos’ vulnerability in passing by applying pressure and covering, which made it easier for C.J. Stroud to get open downfield. Russell Wilson will use a short-to-intermediate passing game in the middle of the field to effectively attack Houston. Up until the rookie’s final field goal drive, Wilson and Stroud play to a draw.
Pick: Texans win 23-20 but fail to cover the spread.
Panthers at Buccaneers (-5, 37 o/u)
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
In the last few weeks, the Buccaneers have suffered some losses while playing on the road against the 49ers and Colts. But, with Mike Evans and Rachaad White providing Baker Mayfield with the most support, they haven’t lost their attacking magic. Frank Reich’s firing as coach of the Panthers won’t ignite the anticipated offensive spark. This is a more discouraging blow for Bryce Young, and the Bucs’ already battered pass defense receives a late reprieve.
Pick: Buccaneers win 27-20 and cover the spread.
Browns at Rams (-4.5, 39.5 o/u)
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
UCLA-made item As a rookie starting quarterback, Dorian Thompson-Robinson will be counting on his health to support Cleveland’s increasingly bleak playoff hopes. The Browns’ running game, defense, and enthusiastic home crowd will keep them in the game. With Myles Garrett in the house, Aaron Donald will be eager to display his multiple DPOY punch, so the Rams’ pass defense will be the problem.
Pick: Rams win 23-20 but fail to cover the spread.
Chiefs (-6.5, 42.5 o/u) at Packers
Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
With Patrick Mahomes leading the way, the Chiefs’ passing game picked back up in Las Vegas; however, the Green Bay defense, which is also a weak unit against the run, is superior against the pass. When facing a suddenly hot NFC opponent at night, Lambeau is also a challenging road environment. With his youthful weapons, a smoldering Jordan Love makes every effort to keep up with Mahomes, but Kansas City closes the deal with a power-rushing attack that complements his style.
Pick: Chiefs win 27-24 but fail to cover the spread.
Bengals at Jaguars (-8, 39 o/u)
Monday 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
Joe Burrow’s absence hurts the Bengals’ offense. However, their problems covering tight ends and covering the middle against the run are making their defense wilt more. As long as Trevor Lawrence is working with the wide receivers, expect that to work well for Travis Etienne and Evan Engram, which will greatly benefit the Jaguars. Although Jake Browning will try his hardest to keep Cincinnati in the game early, the young backup quarterback finds it difficult to travel during crunch time.
Pick: Jaguars win 27-14 and cover the spread.
Stats of the Week
Week 12 straight up: 9-6
Week 12 against the spread: 8-7
Season straight up: 122-57
Season against the spread: 99-77-1