As the Winter Meetings draw near, stoves are heating up this offseason. The St. Louis Cardinals, perhaps no team has had more going on than them, having signed three starting pitchers in quick succession in the days leading up to Thanksgiving: Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, and now Sonny Gray. With ties to the Braves, Reds, and Phillies before agreeing to a three-year, $75 million deal with the Cardinals, Gray was undoubtedly the most sought-after of the three.
After signing Aaron Nola again, the Phillies have Nola, Zack Wheeler, and Ranger Suarez in their rotation, which puts them in a decent spot overall. However, after surprising the league and winning back Nola, Philadelphia is a team loaded with money and even more so with potential and ambition, so nobody should expect them to rest on their laurels. It’s doubtful that their investigations and discussions with Yoshinobu Yamamoto will come to an end because they are still purportedly associated with him.
With Sonny Gray off the market, the Phillies have four free agent targets.
Pitchers dominate this year’s free agent market, which is why the Tigers have signed starters like Gray, Nola, and Kenta Maeda thus far this offseason. In other words, the Phillies have plenty of options at their disposal, particularly those who they may consider middle rotation innings-eaters. After losing Gray to the Cardinals, they could pursue these four.
Shōta Imanaga
Shōta Imanaga, the second-best pitching prospect from Japan posted to the Major League Baseball this offseason, has been eclipsed in talks about potential free agents by Yoshinobu Yamamoto, his younger countryman and Samurai Japan teammate, who, if Shohei Ohtani weren’t in the picture, would be the most sought-after player available. Although Yamamoto’s numbers are clearly more notable than Imanaga’s, there may be some bias in the discussion due to the latter’s age difference (Yamamoto is 25 and Imanaga is 30), as well as the latter’s history of major surgeries, including a season-ending procedure in 2020.
Nevertheless, Imanaga defeated Yamamoto 174 to 169 in 2023, for a strikeout percentage of nearly 30%, to take the title of NPB strikeout king. Despite his injuries, he has been able to provide the Yokohama BayStars with over 150 innings per year for the past three years, and he only walks 4% of the time. Like the 34-year-old Sonny Gray, Imanaga could be the Phillies’ No. 3 starter and could cost a lot less than Yamamoto while still offering starting pitching experience and quality starts.
Imanaga is expected to make $85 million over the course of five years, according to MLB Trade Rumors, making him less expensive than Gray. However, as we’ve already shown, the Phillies appear to have no problem spending money; if they had, they probably would have let Aaron Nola go to reduce their payroll. In fact, over the past few years, they have paid millions of extra dollars to avoid paying the luxury tax. The Phillies should keep a close eye on Imanaga’s market because he is younger than Sonny Gray, the competition for him appears less intense than it is for most other A- or B-tier starting pitchers in free agency, and he may be available for less money.
Marcus Stroman
There hasn’t been much talk about Marcus Stroman since he chose to opt out of his Cubs contract at the beginning of the month. Rejecting the $21 million that remained on his Chicago contract was a bit of a gamble considering that he was limited to 136 innings pitched by the end of the season after suffering a hip injury in August.
The teams with the largest bankrolls would be the best places to turn if he were quietly working behind the scenes to see if he could get more from anyone else. Stroman could be a good addition for the always wealthy Phillies as a short-stadium No. 3 or 4 starter, though it probably wouldn’t last long given that he will be 33 for the majority of the 2024 season.
With just a few starts under his belt prior to being placed on the injured list due to hip inflammation that developed into a rib problem in late July, Stroman had a fantastic start to the season in Chicago, posting a sub-3.00 ERA. Despite pitching to an 8.63 ERA in his four subsequent September appearances, he finished the season with a better K/9 and HR/9 rate than 2022 and was selected for his second career All-Star game in July.
It’s likely that Stroman can expect a two or three year contract for around $20 million a year, which would put him between Gray and Shōta Imanaga in terms of affordability. Taking into account his All-Star April through June this year and being forgiving of his last appearances in September, Stroman can clearly still be a formidable starter. With a career rather comparable in numbers to Gray’s, he could be a fine replacement for the Phillies.
Seth Lugo
Seth Lugo is “drawing interest from more than half the league” after leaving the Padres, according to FanSided’s MLB Insider Robert Murray. The Tigers were the team with whom he was most recently associated; however, after signing Kenta Maeda, they presumably ended negotiations, leaving Lugo available for consideration by other teams. It’s easy to see why Lugo is ranked slightly lower than Stroman on the lists of the top 40 and 50 free agents from the Athletic and MLB Trade Rumor; they are similar in age, have pitched to similar career ERAs (Lugo with 3.50 and Stroman with 3.65), and have eight and nine years of MLB experience, respectively.
But Lugo diverges from both Stroman and Sonny Gray in a rather essential way: he only found new life as a big league starter this year, having served as a bullpen arm for the other seven years of his career with the Mets. The Padres were onto something; in 2023, Lugo pitched 146 1/3 innings, the most in his career, to a respectable 3.57 ERA. He also produced similar-to-better numbers to Stroman, with a 8.61 K/9, and career bests 2.21 BB/9 and 2.8 fWAR, despite missing a month with a calf strain.
Lugo, who just turned 34, may be more affordable than Stroman, Gray, and Shōta Imanaga and still have more potential as a starter. Had he stayed in San Diego, he could have earned an additional $7.5 million from the Padres, but he chose to risk his career by entering free agency. It’s safe to say that it was a wise wager because his next contract is expected to bring in $10 million annually. Lugo might be the ideal choice for the Phillies if they’re searching for an affordable addition to complete their rotation.
Eduardo Rodriguez
Eduardo Rodriguez is the best mid-tier starting pitcher available. He shocked everyone by choosing to leave Detroit three years and $49 million ahead of schedule when he chose to opt out of his contract with the Tigers. Since then, rumors about his next destination have spread from coast to coast, from Boston to Los Angeles, with a few stops in between, but he hasn’t decided on a new contract. Its length and cost will compete with Shōta Imanaga’s, and it may even compete with Sonny Gray’s, following Rodriguez’s best-ever year (he finished sixth in the Cy Young voting in 2019).
Despite some personal issues and after blocking a trade to the Dodgers, he pitched to a 3.30 ERA this season and a 3.58 ERA over two years with the Tigers.
After Tarik Skubal, he was the second-most valuable player in terms of fWAR for the Tigers at the end of the season. He also increased his K/9, BB/9, and HR/9 rates from 2022. His refusal to enter the Dodgers pennant race and his time spent on the Tigers restricted list the previous season may not work in his favor, but his steady play and relative youth should still be enough to land him a big contract.
He could easily finish third or fourth behind Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler if he were with the Phillies.