The statistics only support one conclusion ahead of the Merseyside derby on Saturday.
The team that is second to Tottenham in the table will play in the Merseyside Derby. Not Liverpool, and not the most significant standings. However, Everton is only behind the actual league leaders in shot totals with 133. This season, they are anticipated to score more league goals than Manchester City. Compared to Barcelona, they average more shots each game.
Is Sean Dyche a born-again entertainer and the newest great attacking philosophy in football, or is he just an early-season anomaly? If logic leads one to believe that the answer is the former—after all, at this point in the previous campaign, Frank Lampard’s Everton had the best defensive record in the Premier League—Dyche has a point when he repeatedly emphasises the quantity and calibre of chances that his team has created.
They were somewhat hidden by the low conversion rate, the paltry goal total of nine, the fact that Everton went without a goal in their first three league games, and the fact that they lost their first three games at Goodison Park without scoring for the first time in club history.
Take a comfortable lead early and Everton might not have needed 19 attempts against Fulham or 15 versus Wolves, both in 1-0 defeats at Goodison Park, or 23 at home to Luton, also in a loss. There is a case to be made that Everton would have needed fewer shots if they had been more proficient at scoring goals.
Yet there is something extraordinary about a Dyche squad that lacks too much overt inventiveness producing such statistics: this is the manager who guided Burnley to seventh place in the Premier League despite averaging under a goal per game and in a campaign when only four clubs had fewer shots. At Turf Moor, Dyche was synonymous with the 4-4-2; but, at Goodison Park, he has a propensity for the 4-4-1-1, which may have contributed to the increase in opportunities.
Everton’s resurgence as the anticipated outcomes Having a runner rather than a player with flair in the position of No. 10 may be usual considering Dyche’s emphasis on toughness, which contributes to Wunderteam. Abdoulaye Doucoure has, nonetheless, been put in excellent scoring opportunities by Everton. Only Erling Haaland and Alexander Isak have higher non-penalty xGs in the division than his 4.87, according to Understat’s model. Although it has only resulted in three goals for the Malian, it is noteworthy that his average shooting distance is only 11.5 yards. These are the statistics of men who shoot at close range and who have good opportunities; Haaland’s is 11.3 in comparison.
A sample size is even smaller because several Everton players had short seasons due to injuries, but it is noteworthy that several players have high xG per 90 minutes on the pitch, including Dominic Calvert-Lewin (0.92), Doucoure (0.64), Beto (0.62), Arnaut Danjuma (0.60), and Jack Harrison (0.44). Neal Maupay’s score before departing for Brentford was 1.38, in part because he squandered all those opportunities. Despite the fact that Beto has yet to score a league goal, the aggressive new signing has been a nuisance.
The fact that majority of the opportunities come from crosses, set pieces, and the flanks demonstrates Dyche’s traditional attacking strategy; he has rarely had a midfield playmaker. In terms of crosses this year, Everton is only surpassed by Luton. James Garner, Dwight McNeil, and Ashley Young are their three most frequent crossers. Despite just playing 118 minutes, Harrison has the highest rate of assists per 90 minutes of any player in the division. Only Mohamed Salah has played more games (200 or more) than McNeil (0.57 from 371).
A supporting cast is also present. Everton has 12 players with anticipated goals per 90 minutes of at least 0.12; the fact that they all are full-backs is another indication of Dyche’s playing style. Comparatively, only six Everton players from the previous campaign had an xA per 90 of 0.12 or higher, and these included Alex Iwobi, Demarai Grey, and Tom Cannon, who both went on to be sent away. Salomon Rondon also played for just 96 minutes.
So, in his own unique way, Dyche has increased Everton’s creativity with the use of strong strikers, wingers who can cross, and his signature, everyday style. With a target man in Beto, a fullback with 71 Premier League assists in Young, a winger with a high shot volume in Danjuma, and a player who directly contributed to 37 top-flight goals in three seasons at Leeds in Harrison, his signings have demonstrated clarity of thought.
However, Everton’s offensive strategies under his tenure have centred around two players he inherited that weren’t especially effective before. With five goals and two assists apiece in the 18 games after Dyche took over as manager, McNeil and Doucoure helped keep Everton in the playoff hunt last season.
Each is on track to produce greater stats so far this season. But there is a warning attached. Everton has played five home games so far. They played Luton and Bournemouth, two of the current bottom four, as well as Fulham and Wolves, two more teams in the lower half. They are still only in 16th place, and the schedule gets more difficult.
They significantly underperformed their projected goals last season, so the fact that they are doing so once more does not guarantee that the numbers will balance out. With less xG than City and fewer shots per game than Barcelona, they will most likely finish the season with those differences. But for now, the team with the second-highest number of shots is actually the second-lowest scorers from the previous season. Not just overworked rival defenders are likely to be shocked by that.