The 2023 season was excruciating for the New York Yankees in both literal and metaphorical senses.
The pain itself, in the form of an avalanche of injuries, was the literal aspect of the Bronx bane. The Yankees lost players one by one and dropped in the American League standings. Following an expectedly exciting preseason, the most successful team in baseball limped home in fourth place, barely managing to break the .500 barrier that it has topped for more than thirty years.
If this outcome did not feel so familiar, perhaps ever-forgiving New Yorkers would have dismissed the campaign as bad luck and turned the page. But the angst carried over into the offseason, because bad luck didn’t seem like a sufficient explanation. The whole season felt like a rerun of something Yankees fans have seen a few too many times.
Is this something that can be recorded? Have the Yankees been more impacted by injuries than other teams, or more accurately, how those injuries have affected them? Which teams have performed the best in avoiding the IL in the past few seasons, and which have not? Who will be most vulnerable in the upcoming season?
We developed the Injury Index in order to provide answers to these questions; our methodology is detailed in the “How we calculated the Injury Index” box below. The goal is to calculate the production lost as a result of players spending too much time in the trainer’s room and insufficient time on the field by examining how often teams have used the injured list over the previous few seasons. In order to determine who might be most vulnerable for the 2024 campaign, we also applied our research to the current rosters of each club.
Tier 1: Heavy IL use
Note: Teams on this tier have an Injury Index at least half a standard deviation above average.
1. New York Yankees (Injury Index: 111.5)
2. Tampa Bay Rays (110.2)
3. Los Angeles Dodgers (110.0)
4. Atlanta Braves (106.7)
5. Minnesota Twins (106.6)
6. Houston Astros (105.5)
Injury concerns are factored into every team’s season-long planning to some degree. They will be on every team. When planning a season, no general manager anticipates having a 26-man active roster from April to October.
Over the estimated 5.5 wins above replacement (WAR) that the average team lost in the previous season, it’s the marginal numbers that begin to set teams apart. IL placements cost the Yankees an estimated 14.7 WAR, or 9.2 WAR above average, in the previous season. The Twins’ 5.2 score was the second-worst number.
One of the highest one-season injury indices in the last five years was the Yankees’ (128). Position players (index: 122, second highest in the majors behind the Angels) and pitchers (index: 124, highest in baseball) shared an unusual amount of those losses.
Here’s an additional number: 12.5. The difference between the Yankees’ 82 wins and the pre-season consensus over/under total of 94.5 was that amount. There were just three teams with a greater difference: the White Sox, Cardinals, and Mets. Even though we can’t completely blame it on injuries, you also can’t ignore that aspect.
It’s a pattern, though, which is how the Yankees ended up at the top of the Injury Index—a list you really don’t want to be at the top of. Starting in 2019, New York’s Injury Index rankings by season are as follows: second, fourth, fifth, 18th, and first. The Yankees’ 2022 season was the only one in which they did not have an above-average Injury Index, with them finishing in 18th place. The 2022 Yankees won 99 games and made it to the ALCS, maybe not by coincidence.
The only teams to rate above average four times during the five years in the formula are the Rays (who have been above average all five seasons), Yankees and Braves. Good teams, yes, but there are a lot of possible explanations for why some of the elite teams from recent years top the leaderboard, or are at the bottom of it, depending on how you want to view things.
First and foremost, they have quality players whose lost WAR quickly mounts up once they are placed on the injured list. Additionally, it’s possible that they are willing to take a greater chance when working with more seasoned players because they know that any contributions they receive will probably have an influence.
There could be more factors in play. Perhaps teams in contention are pushing players harder. Maybe they are proactive in injury prevention and are more willing to place players on the list, knowing the overall strength of the roster gives them a buffer. Maybe the way they use the players, in particular the pitchers, correlates both to high-impact performance and high risk for injury. What we can say for sure is that these teams have lost more production in terms of WAR than other teams, and the Yankees currently have the most detrimental combination of injury quantity and the quality of players getting hurt.
Tier 2: Average/above-average IL use
7. Los Angeles Angels (103.7)
8. San Diego Padres (102.1)
9. New York Mets (101.6)
10. Boston Red Sox (100.0)
11. St. Louis Cardinals (99.6)
12. Chicago Cubs (99.6)
Though Mike Trout is by no means the only frequently injured Halo, his absences from the team have a significant impact on the Angels’ record. It is impossible to discuss the Angels’ Injury Index without mentioning another metric: Los Angeles has finished an average of 11.1 wins below their preseason over/under consensus over the previous five seasons. Not a single other team comes close to that.
The Angels’ pitching staff has actually performed better than average when it comes to IL placements, which is the only reason they don’t rank higher on the Injury Index. However, only the Twins have a higher Injury Index (113) on the hitting side due to Trout, Anthony Rendon, and others.
Tier 3: Below-average IL use
13. Cincinnati Reds (99.3)
14. Detroit Tigers (99.1)
15. Philadelphia Phillies (98.9)
16. San Francisco Giants (98.8)
17. Miami Marlins (98.4)
18. Chicago White Sox (98.3)
19. Toronto Blue Jays (98.3)
20. Seattle Mariners (97.8)
21. Milwaukee Brewers (97.5)
22. Colorado Rockies (97.0)
23. Baltimore Orioles (96.6)
The team that sticks out the most in this group is the Phillies. This is a result of their roster construction, which combines a strong star presence with a slightly shallower organizational structure compared to some of the other powers. However, the Phillies’ recent success can be attributed to their ability to maintain the quality of play of their best players.
For example, only two clubs had at least seven position players and at least three pitchers who qualified for the batting and ERA titles, respectively, in the previous season. The teams in question were the Braves and Phillies. All teams should aim for that level of consistency, even though you should never give up on depth.
Tier 4: Light IL use
24. Cleveland Guardians (95.8)
25. Pittsburgh Pirates (95.5)
26. Kansas City Royals (94.9)
27. Texas Rangers (93.9)
28. Arizona Diamondbacks (93.5)
29. Washington Nationals (93.0)
30. Oakland Athletics (92.4)
It is not surprising that young teams—many of whom are in the midst of rebuilding—dominate this list. You could also subtly imply that for some of these teams, the WAR component of the Injury Index won’t be all that high. Put another way, because they are better at preventing injuries, the A’s do not have the lowest Injury Index. It’s because the effects of their injuries haven’t been all that severe.
The striking feature of this group, in case you missed it, is that it includes the Rangers and Diamondbacks, our two most recent World Series opponents.
Because of this, the Injury Index cannot be considered a leading predictor of championship hopes. In retrospect, though, the Diamondbacks’ MLB-low 2023 index (87) has to be regarded as a major contributing factor to Arizona’s initial postseason success. As it was, Arizona barely made it onto the field, and the playoff run might have been over before it started if a major injury had occurred to one of the team’s key players, Corbin Carroll or Zac Gallen.
Low scores in the first four seasons of the calculation—all rebuilding campaigns for Texas—tamp down the Rangers’ index in the meantime. The number from the previous year gradually increased as Bruce Bochy managed to accommodate players like Nathan Eovaldi, Corey Seager, Jacob deGrom, and Max Scherzer’s various in-season injuries. The Rangers are the reigning champions because of the excellent job he did. Give GM Chris Young credit as well for overcoming unfortunate injury circumstances by calling up Evan Carter on time or acquiring quality replacements in Scherzer.
It is not for nothing that the Rangers of 2024 will always have those injury-plagued players on the roster, which will cloud the team’s future prospects in this area.
2024 risk assessment
Although we are unable to predict injuries, we do know that a past injury can help predict a future injury. As a result, we can look at the 40-man rosters of each club right now and determine a Risk Index evaluation based on the number of days each player has missed due to injury in previous seasons.
This measure, like the main Injury Index, gives greater weight to recent seasons. The computation, which establishes a “likely” percentage of days lost based on this recent history, only takes into account the last five years. Projections from Steamer were used to determine a potential WAR impact for the Risk Index.
Think about Trout. Based on Spotrac data, he has been on the IL for a total of 0 days during the last five seasons 0, 0, 139, 33, and 88. If you take 180 days as the typical season duration, the weighted average of that series is 66, or 36.6%. We are estimating Trout’s injury risk for 2024 at that proportion. For each player currently on a 40-man roster, we have performed the same computation and applied it as a kind of penalty to a “ideal” WAR, which the player may attain if he were able to play a regular role for an entire, healthy season.
First caveat: minor league injuries are not included in this analysis since we do not have reliable data on them.
Second caveat: Whether or not to include players who have already been placed on the 60-day injured list and are thought to be unlikely to return this season is debatable. They are in this instance. It may be argued that teams have constructed their rosters around their absences thus far. Ultimately, we came to the conclusion that the absence of stars like Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers), Drey Jameson (Diamondbacks), and Brandon Woodruff (Brewers) represents actual production loss for their respective clubs.
Highest risk indexes
1. Dodgers (137.7 | hitter rank: 14 | pitcher rank: 1)
2. Rays (115.3 | hitters: 8 | pitchers: 3)
3. Marlins (110.9 | hitters: 23 | pitchers: 2)
4. Brewers (107.2 | hitters: 21 | pitchers: 4)
5. Twins (106.6 | hitters: 2 | pitchers: 14)
6. Yankees (106.6 | hitters: 3 | pitchers: 9)
7. Rangers (106.3 | hitters: 19 | pitchers: 5)
8. Braves (104.9 | hitters: 7 | pitchers: 10)
9. Tigers (104.6 | hitters: 10 | pitchers: 7)
10. Pirates (102.5 | hitters: 4 | pitchers: 16)
It’s not too difficult to identify this list. Although Ohtani’s pitching will not be available to the Dodgers, Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May, Walker Buehler, and Tony Gonsolin all have a history of recent injuries. That five-man roster of injured wings is a championship-caliber group unto itself. The Dodgers’ risk index shot through the sky as a result. We should anticipate that Los Angeles has already plotted a route around this fact if historical precedent is any guide.
In other news, the Rays are expected to have very little, if any, impact from Shane McClanahan in 2024 due to their worrisome pitching turnover rate. Woodruff won’t be with the Brewers. The Twins’ high risk rating is highlighted by Byron Buxton’s injury troubles and Carlos Correa’s numerous recent injuries. It all boils down to Sandy Alcantara’s regrettable absence for the Marlins.
Once again, the Yankees are very high on the list. Maybe their luck with injuries will be better, or maybe Brian Cashman and his team will have enough organizational depth to explain this persistent discomfort. Perhaps Giancarlo Stanton, in his reduced state, showing up to spring training will be the much-needed boon for Yankees supporters.
Lowest risk indexes
20. Cardinals (94.5 | hitter rank: 20 | pitcher rank: 18)
21. Red Sox (94.5 | hitters: 9 | pitchers: 27)
22. Mariners (93.7 | hitters: 5 | pitchers: 30)
23. Cubs (93.5 | hitters: 17 | pitchers: 20)
24. Padres (93.3 | hitters: 12 | pitchers: 26)
25. Blue Jays (92.6 | hitters: 11 | pitchers: 29)
26. White Sox (92.1 | hitters: 16 | pitchers: 25)
27. Nationals (90.3 | hitters: 25 | pitchers: 21)
28. Rockies (89.0 | hitters: 27 | pitchers: 24)
29. Guardians (88.4 | hitters: 29 | pitchers: 23)
30. Athletics (86.9 | hitters: 30 | pitchers: 28)
Since this group’s behavior cannot be explained by youth or rebuilding, it will be fascinating to follow up with them after the season. Teams vying for postseason berths include the Cardinals, Red Sox, Mariners, Cubs, Padres, Guardians, and Blue Jays; their rosters seem to have a minimal chance of injuries.
There’s an intriguing element to the Red Sox’s position here: the Braves now own Chris Sale’s injury risk (which has a 60.9% impact on his optimal WAR estimate). As you may have noted, Atlanta is definitely classified as a high-risk injury team.
Others:: 11. Angels (102.3); 12. Orioles (101.4); 13. Mets (100.8); 14. Royals (99.4); 15. Astros (99.4); 16. Phillies (98.1); 17. Diamondbacks (97.0); 18. Reds (95.2); 19. Giants (95.1)
Takeaways
Let’s review some key findings and hypotheses from the data to have in mind:
• Injuries usually have a bigger effect on stronger teams. Figuring this out is not difficult. In all, superior players make up good teams, right? The impact of an injury to a really good player is substantial.
• Teams with larger payrolls can assume greater injury risk in order to increase their financial clout. The Yankees seem to be one such team, having added Carlos Rodon and Jameson Taillon, two pitchers who have a history of injuries, in recent years. Occasionally, the Dodgers have signed injured pitchers like Jimmy Nelson, Danny Duffy, and Tommy Kahnle to two-year contracts in the hopes of receiving some compensation in the second season.
• Nothing particularly surprising here, but bear in mind that older athletes sustain injuries more frequently than younger ones. As a result, clubs with young rosters typically have lower Injury Index scores, and vice versa.
• Having a high Injury Index score does not automatically mean that a team will not make the playoffs. A season can be seriously jeopardized by repeated injuries, as the Yankees in 2023 may have experienced. But the top teams have enough depth in the lineup to handle injuries. The index takes on the characteristics of both an injury management evaluation and a measure of depth building when viewed through the lens of exceeding or falling short of expectations.
Because there are so many unknowns when analyzing publically available data, injury analysis is always a risky business. since of this, although IL placements are only one aspect of the story, we concentrate on them since they are a tangible truth. Some players play while hurt, which reduces output. The 2023 Yankees are once again a prime example, as Anthony Rizzo played through a concussion. Teams may put players on the injured list when they are only taking preventative measures to avoid more serious problems down the road, rather than because they are truly that injured. Numerous other aspects are involved.
There are still unanswered questions, but the trends are intriguing. On the IL, some teams have continuously been more active than others. Some people have handled this practically as if they were expecting it. Others have witnessed how the injuries have ruined otherwise excellent seasons.
The Yankees, for the most part, represent the third type of team at this time. The Bronx’s depth should hold up far better than it did in 2023 or their Injury Index should be lower if 2024 turns out to be a bounce-back season.