Predicting the two outcomes for the Mets starting rotation.
With Yoshinobu Yamamoto, there are only two outcomes that matter to New York Mets supporters. Either the Mets sign him or he doesn’t.
They will get the rotation boost at the top they need by signing with the Mets, but it will also change the makeup of the starting rotation overall.
How would the Mets’ rotation appear both with and without Yamamoto?
Mets starting rotation with Yoshinobu Yamamoto
In a specific order:
1. Yoshinobu Yamamoto
2. Kodai Senga
3. Jose Quintana
4. Luis Severino
5. Winner of Tylor Megill vs. Joey Lucchesi vs. Eric Lauer
Yamamoto’s signing with the Mets will likely result in a lesser arm taking the other open spot in the rotation. The Mets could look to a spring competition because they already have a number of pitchers that fit this description.
I’ve included Eric Lauer in the matchup instead of just picking Tylor Megill vs. Joey Lucchesi (with David Peterson participating once healthy). It’s simple to draw a link between him and the Mets as he was formerly the starting pitcher for the Milwaukee Brewers. Lauer would need to sign a minor league contract to join the Mets. It would be absurd to sign him and put him in a roster competition while he was on a major league contract because he has no minor league options.
If the player who takes the fifth starting spot plays well, this rotation shouldn’t be too bad. If Yamamoto moves on, you might even prefer it to the other starting five.
Mets starting rotation without Yoshinobu Yamamoto
In no particular order:
1.Kodai Senga
2. Shota Imanaga
3. Jose Quintana
4. Luis Severino
5. Lucas Giolito
The Mets are a team with resources, a desire to succeed, and a loyal following that will be devastated if Yamamoto chooses not to settle in Queens. The bright side is that the Mets should have a higher chance of adding two outside arms if Yamamoto ends up with another team.
Compared to Yamamoto, Shota Imanaga hasn’t received as much attention this offseason. Yamamoto is a few rungs above the 30-year-old. Superb discipline during his tenure in Japan; we wouldn’t experience the same issues we did when Senga gave out so many free passes. As a multi-year addition to their rotation, the lefty would be a good return for the Mets.
Additionally, Lucas Giolito joins the Mets on a two-year contract with a 2025 option. Throughout his career, Giolito has been an excellent innings-eater. His terrible 2023 season shouldn’t cause the Mets to completely lose interest.
The two key moves the team should make are to go after Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery. It turns out differently than I would have predicted. Let’s hope we never learn.