The 2023 NFL season’s stretch run begins during the holidays. Regardless of how you choose to celebrate, we can all come together and enjoy what promises to be an exciting conclusion.
Two teams have been eliminated from postseason contention and one playoff spot has been guaranteed with four games left for each of the 32 teams. Both No. 1 seeds are up for grabs, and the only team with a greater than two-game lead for a division title is the San Francisco 49ers.
Given that the outcomes of Week 14 left the door open for multiple comeback attempts (see the losses by Miami, Detroit, and Kansas City), the majority of division races may come down to the wire. However, the jumble of clubs at or nearing a wild-card spot in the final four weeks of this season is the biggest confusion.
Six AFC teams are at 7-6: Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Houston, Denver, Cincinnati, and Buffalo. The Browns, led by Joe Flacco, are at the top of the wild-card standings at 8-5. The NFC’s No. 5 seed is probably going to go to the winner of the East division, which could be either Dallas or Philadelphia, but the final two spots are up for grabs. No. 6 is Minnesota (7-6) and No. 7 is Green Bay; however, five other teams in the conference (Tampa Bay, Los Angeles, Seattle, Atlanta, and New Orleans) are ranked 6-7.
There are some challenging moments in the last quarter of the season, but the strength of the schedule is not the only factor to consider. With backup quarterbacks being thrust into starting roles across the NFL, injuries disrupting teams, and erratic play defining many teams, projecting performance in the final stretch is a haphazard guessing game.
Week by week, the dynamics shift due to the wild season’s ebb and flow. After their victory on the road on Monday, are the Titans now a fierce team that shouldn’t be taken lightly? Will Jake Browning continue to play at such a high level, or will he start to decline? The Detroit Lions are who?
With nine games in Week 15 between clubs in or within one game of playoff position, the landscape on New Year’s Eve is sure to look very different from what it does today. However, we should still anticipate that those wild-card spots will be available. Let’s examine the six teams with the most difficult remaining schedules that are vying for a wild-card berth in more detail.
Rank 1
Pittsburgh Steelers 7-6-0
Remaining four games: at Colts (7-6), vs. Bengals (7-6), at Seahawks (6-7), at Ravens (10-3)
Although Pittsburgh’s schedule isn’t the hardest in the league right now, it is the hardest given the circumstances surrounding the Steel City team.
Tea parties in Strugglesville were being thrown by the Steelers offense even before Kenny Pickett suffered a surgery-needed ankle injury. Observing Mitch Trubisky’s attempt to oversee the process in retrospect, Pickett appears to be the Martha Stewart of pigskin matriculation.
According to NFL Research, Pittsburgh is averaging 16.2 points per game through Week 14, which is the third-fewest by a winning team in the previous 40 seasons. The defense has been Mike Tomlin’s team’s main source of game-changing plays, and amazingly, it has produced them more frequently than one might have predicted. However, the defense is suffering from a number of injuries and exhaustion from having to play flawlessly to support the offense, so the formula is crumbling.
The Pittsburgh Steelers will play three road games and two rivalry games against four teams in the final four weeks, all of whom are vying for a postseason spot. Can the Steelers turn things around after suffering back-to-back home losses to teams that have won two games in a row? Should they succeed, especially with Trubisky at the center for a minimum of one more week, it could be considered Tomlin’s most accomplished work to date.
Rank 2
Minnesota Vikings 7-6-0
Remaining four games: at Bengals (7-6), vs. Lions (9-4), vs. Packers (6-7), at Lions (9-4)
A month has passed since Kevin O’Connell’s team’s five-game winning streak put them in playoff contention. The team’s 3-0 victory in Las Vegas on Sunday didn’t exactly give them hope that they can win four more games and advance to the postseason.
The good news for Minnesota is that their defense, led by Brian Flores, is frightening opponents. Since Week 6, the defense has only allowed 15 points per game, which is the fewest in the NFL, and has not allowed a touchdown. The backend flies around, forcing turnovers, and the crew uses pressure to confound quarterbacks. This team should be in the playoffs.
The offense has collapsed, which is the bad news. The Vikings offense has struggled to produce drives since Josh Dobbs’ magic ran out, and they are forced to commit long down-and-distances far too frequently. The Vikings have scored three touchdowns overall in their last three games. The passing game is exposed by the absence of a rushing attack. Is starting quarterback Nick Mullens, who has a 5-12 record, the solution?
The Vikings have some leeway in the NFC thanks to their one-game advantage over a group of six or seven teams, but Minnesota needs Flores’ defense to pave the way. In place of Joe Burrow, backup Jake Browning, who has performed admirably, will face it. The Vikings host a Green Bay team they have already defeated on the road, and they have two games against the suddenly struggling Lions. If it weren’t for the obvious concerns surrounding the quarterback, the Vikings would be ranked lower.
Rank 3
Cincinnati Bengals 7-6-0
Remaining four games: vs. Vikings (7-6), at Steelers (7-6), at Chiefs (8-5), vs. Browns (8-5)
Jake Browning intervened just as the season seemed doomed, saving Cincy—for the time being. With skill and poise, the backup quarterback has led Cincy to two straight victories, scoring 34 points in each contest. Zac Taylor has done an outstanding job leading the Bengals to victory.
We await Browning’s real tests. Four defenses that have the ability to win games and exert control over opponents are facing the Bengals. Cleveland, the fourth team, has given up the fewest yards this season, while the other three are among the top 10 in terms of points allowed.
Cincinnati has to travel to Pittsburgh and Kansas City and doesn’t play against a team with a losing record. Those tilts may not appear as intimidating as they once did, but in hostile environments, backup quarterbacks usually exhibit their worst traits.
To make a run at the postseason, the Bengals will require Lou Anarumo’s defense to stand firm against dubious offenses.
Rank 4
Buffalo Bills 7-6-0
Remaining four games: vs. Cowboys (10-3), at Chargers (5-8), vs. Patriots (3-10), at Dolphins (9-4)
It is impossible to downplay the significance of Sunday’s victory in Kansas City. With four games remaining, the Bills did not anticipate that Sean McDermott’s team would be sitting in the No. 11 spot, where they are now after going 3-2 in their last five games.
The Dolphins’ defeat on Monday night reopened the door in the AFC East, but Buffalo just needs to focus on their upcoming matchup against the Dallas Cowboys, who are on a roll, on Sunday. Its four-year playoff streak would be in jeopardy with a home loss.
Since October, Buffalo has not been consistent. If McDermott’s defense faltered in close games or the coach made puzzling mental and coaching errors, it was the offense giving up the ball in large quantities.
Can Josh Allen perform miracles in the final moments? The quarterback has the most wins in the NFL during that time, going 15-2 in December and January of the regular season since 2020. Since 2020, he has also led the league in passing touchdowns (39) and total touchdowns (47) in regular-season games played in December and January.
The Bills’ two less important games are against the Chargers, who will start Easton Stick in Week 16, and the Patriots, who have three wins, at home. However, Buffalo has already suffered a loss to New England this season, so that game shouldn’t be taken too lightly.
A run by Allen and company could set up a huge match in Miami in Week 18. We can’t pencil that in just yet, though, given McDermott’s club’s inconsistent performance thus far.
Rank 5
Seattle Seahawks 6-7-0
Remaining four games: vs. Eagles (10-3), at Titans (5-8), vs. Steelers (7-6), at Cardinals (3-10)
By the time Pete Carroll’s team finished Week 10 at 6-3, we knew a difficult road lay ahead. Since then, Seattle has failed every test. The four-game losing streak was the first of the Carroll era and was highlighted by two double-digit losses to the 49ers. Now, on Monday night, the Seahawks will play the 10-3 Eagles in a pivotal prime-time match for both clubs.
Although Drew Lock had a respectable game in Sunday’s loss in San Francisco, Geno Smith’s most recent injury casts doubt on the Seahawks’ postseason chances. Seattle has scored more than 20 points in each of its six victories this season. It has only once exceeded the 17-point threshold in the seven losses. Carroll’s defense is currently unable to win them games.
After Week 15, things get a little easier on the schedule, but the test in Tennessee won’t be simple. The Titans are significantly more effective at home, and Seattle hasn’t won on the road since Week 4. Kenny Pickett might make a comeback in the Week 17 matchup with the Steelers. Furthermore, the Seahawks’ victory over the Josh Dobbs-led Cards in Week 7 wasn’t exactly a blowout.
Carroll’s team sneaked into the postseason last year with a late-season surge. They will have to repeat this.
Rank 6
Houston Texans 7-6-0
Remaining four games: at Titans (5-8), vs. Browns (8-5), vs. Titans (5-8), at Colts (7-6)
The conditions surrounding DeMeco Ryans’ club are more of the reason they are on this list than the schedule.
Following Tennessee’s victory over Miami on the road on Monday night, the two games against the Titans appear more competitive, and the Browns and Colts are fighting for a postseason spot. However, the young team that is just getting started has reason to be concerned about the horrific run of injuries.
It was seismic to lose Tank Dell for the season. Dalton Schultz, the security blanket, hasn’t been in. Nico Collins is experiencing another setback with his calf. Then, in Week 14, amazing rookie C.J. Stroud sustained a concussion. Will the quarterback have enough weapons to mount a late-season comeback, even if he returns?
Despite a long list of offensive line injuries for the Texans, Stroud has had an extraordinary rookie campaign. Can he, however, hold up while switching up his lines and playing without his best receiving targets? Eighteen of the twenty-one touchdown receptions by the Texans in 2023 have come from Dell, Collins, and Schultz combined.
One of the season’s highlights is that they were even in a position to contend for a postseason run in their first season under head coach DeMeco Ryans. In its rebuilding, the younger group is way ahead of the game. Postseason opportunities, though, are never guaranteed. Ryans would be deserving of Coach of the Year if Houston manages to overcome all of the injuries in the final stretch to qualify for the postseason.