Three potential one-year contract signings for Mets pitching targets

This free agency window offers a ton of rebounding prospects.

We now have more information about the New York Mets’ 2024 rotation strategy. After visiting Japan to meet with the young talent, Steven Cohen and David Stearns, the front office will do everything in its power to sign Yamamoto. This is just one arm for a ballclub that needs multiple, even if the Mets sign Yamamoto. The Mets currently have Jose Quintana, Luis Severino, and Kodai Senga locked up for the rotation. This is insufficient for a 162-game schedule, to put it plainly.

Regarding Yamamoto, Stearns had said, “If we don’t get him, we’ll adjust and go down alternate paths” at the Winter Meetings. There are many ways we could read these remarks, but the other option is probably a rotation centered on short-term contracts with an eye toward the 2024–25 free agency window. Which starting pitching options are still available on a one-year contract, assuming that’s the case?

1. Jack Flaherty

The best way to characterize Jack Flaherty is as the St. Louis Cardinals’ equivalent of Noah Syndergaard—he entered the majors with a bang but was never able to maintain his level of health long enough to reach his ceiling. Flaherty pitched to a 3.34 ERA in 28 starts and 151 innings pitched during his first full season in 2018. After that, he would pitch 196.1 innings in 2019 with a 2.75 ERA, 33 starts, and 231 strikeouts. Sounds like Syndergaard from 2015 and 2016, doesn’t it?

There’s more to the relationship between the two former aces. Between 2020 and 2022, Flaherty only made 32 starts due to recurrent oblique and shoulder injuries. He has not yet returned to his 2019 form and is pitching for the first time in 2023 for the entire season. He pitched for the Cardinals and Baltimore Orioles last season, recording a 4.99 ERA in 144.1 innings. Before the season was even over, Flaherty was cut from the Orioles rotation, much like Syndergaard was with the Cleveland Guardians.

Despite his poor 2023 season, Flaherty remains a fantastic low-cost high-reward option for a team looking to add players on short-term contracts. Even so, Flaherty has a chance to reinvent himself at the age of 28, much like Bartolo Colon or C.C. Sabathia did in their later years. Similar to Severino, Flaherty is viewed as a reliable starting pitcher who gets the ball every time out rather than an ace.

2. James Paxton

Although James Paxton has never maintained ace-caliber potential for an entire season, he has always displayed flashes of it. With 103 starts and 583.2 innings pitched, Paxton pitched to a 3.42 ERA in his first seven seasons with the Seattle Mariners. Before the 2019 season, he was traded to the New York Yankees, where he had success with two strong postseason outings and a 3.82 ERA in 150.2 innings pitched.

Paxton hasn’t pitched nearly a full season since then, though. Pitching to a 4.90 ERA between the Yankees, Mariners, and Boston Red Sox, he has made 25 starts since 2020. The only noteworthy figure he has is 9.9 K/9, and in this time, he has only walked 41 batters. Paxton hasn’t been able to stay healthy otherwise, but he had glimpses of excellence last season.

Paxton is a candidate for a one-year contract most likely for less than what Luis Severino received in $13 million. An ideal contract would have performance incentive bonuses for innings pitched and starts. This would be like Michael Wacha’s $3 million base salary in 2020 with incentives for innings pitched had 2020 been a 162-game season. It is worth exploring if Paxton could be a swing starter at this point in his career and his injury history. There have been success stories such as Mike Minor in finding a late-career role as a starter/reliever.

3. Hyun-Jin Ryu

Ryu has the most reliable record out of the three pitchers. After moving to the US from South Korea in 2013, Ryu played for the Los Angeles Dodgers for his first six seasons. Ryu returned to prominence in 2018 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2015, pitching to a 2.30 ERA in 56 starts from 2018 to 2020. With a 2.32 ERA in 182.2 innings pitched, he was the strongest opponent of Jacob deGrom for the Cy Young Award in 2019.

After the 2020 season was cut short by COVID-19, Ryu has never been the same. He only pitched for one full season, in 2021, totaling 169 innings pitched and a 4.37 ERA. In the last two seasons, he has only made 17 appearances for the Blue Jays; however, in 2023, he stabilized himself with a respectable 3.46 ERA. Ryu has been productive despite suffering numerous injuries over the last few seasons, unlike Flaherty or Paxton. Given his effectiveness through 11 starts last season, Ryu has the best chance to recover in 2024 if the Mets decide to target one of these players.

All of these are low-risk options for a team that just needs strong starts, even though none of the one-year contract candidates are bringing in big money. Top players like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery are asking for multi-year deals that are well over $100 million, so the Mets might be hesitant to accept these offers. Teams run the risk of being penalized for past actions rather than future plans, considering their past performance. A stronger free agent class featuring players like Max Fried, Walker Buehler, and Shane Bieber will be available during the upcoming offseason. Aside from Yamamoto, the best course of action if the Mets were to contend in 2025 would be to look short-term.

 

 

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