For the Mets to have any chance in 2024, a number of these best-case possibilities must materialize.
It might be difficult to be overly optimistic about the New York Mets at the moment. Nothing they’ve done in the offseason has really impressed us. Not a single one has warranted a live news conference. But they don’t intend to use offseason transactions to win on the back pages. David Stearns is putting up a strategy for long-term success, even though there’s a chance it won’t reach the end objective by 2024.
The Mets have at least succeeded in providing the team with a chance at certain best-case scenarios. They didn’t exchange Edwin Diaz, Pete Alonso, or any other highly lucrative player for anything of value. The season isn’t being gambled away by them. They are attempting to assemble a squad that is capable of competing if all goes according to plan.
To have the most successful 2024, the Mets will need to swing at these five best-case scenarios.
5) Best-case scenario: Every young Mets player to advance.
In 2024, the Mets will rely even more on youthful players. When the previous season first began, they hesitated. It can be easily forgotten that Francisco Alvarez did not make the Opening Day roster.
Concerns about what Alvarez can do for them are minimal. However, just like the other children, he has to advance in his development by taking a step or a big leap.
The Mets will need more on Brett Baty to show any life than on Alvarez to prove he is more than just a powerful hitter who can call a decent game. They can live with him not developing into a top-notch third base defender. The worst-case scenario is when you don’t show up at the plate.
If Baty fails, the Mets have no good options at third base. Some others believe Mark Vientos to be an even worse defender. Regularly seeing Joey Wendle won’t do either.
The squad will rely largely on those returning Baby Mets as well as any others who might reach the majors. That latter third of the batting order needs to be more than a near-automatic out, even if they never bat higher than sixth in the lineup.
4) Best-case scenario: The bullpen is expertly fixed by Jeremy Hefner
It doesn’t appear that the Mets bullpen is among the greatest ever put together. While there is some optimism about Edwin Diaz’s return, the most of the relievers are out of options and have little to no success in the major leagues.
Jeremy Hefner, the pitching coach, will have to do his magic on a lot of them. What made Jorge Lopez an All-Star in 2022, can he discover out? Is he able to outperform any other pitcher contending for a spot on the major league roster? It wouldn’t be too horrible to fix Drew Smith either.
What should frighten fans the most is the bullpen. We may envision a situation in which the offense is totally acceptable. Starting pitchers have a track record of success dating back more than a year. It would be difficult for even the most imaginative person to envision the relievers for the Mets having an ERA higher than league average. Even when a lot else goes well for the club, this particular member of the roster has the ability to swiftly bring the team to its knees.
Hefner is not the only one affected. Carlos Mendoza must make the appropriate decisions. It would also be wonderful to have some assistance with enhancements from David Stearns. He has given the coaching staff a number of corroded or broken tools. If the relievers are wasting opportunities, it might not matter how the rest of the team performs.
3) Best-case scenario: Harrison Bader, Starling Marte, and Luis Severino are in good health.
The most effective teams are frequently the healthiest ones. Although there is disagreement on the abilities of players such as Harrison Bader, Starling Marte, and Luis Severino, the Mets stand to gain more from a fully healthy campaign from them.
We’re already hoping for an all-around healthy season for every Mets player. Those three are known for being time-missing. I hope nobody passes up the opportunity to stretch.
The strongest center field defense we’ve seen in a while would result from a healthy Bader. With any hope, he also hits.
We’ve already seen what Marte is capable of when he’s well. It feels like a decade ago since his 2022 campaign. With so many unknowns in the club’s starting lineup, it is imperative that he continues to play and contribute.
It’s possible that Severino is the most deserving person to wish well. The starting rotation’s quality may ultimately depend on how well he performs. And the majority of fans would use up their wish on the first 5+.
2) The starting pitching staff all has seasons that are ordinary for their careers.
Cy Young winner is not necessary for the Mets. All they need is an abysmal season from each of their starting pitchers. Even though Severino has had far stronger seasons with the New York Yankees in the past, a 14-9 record with a 3.79 ERA would be appreciated. Even if Sean Manaea’s record of 12-11 and 4.10 ERA is far from what the Mets starting staff truly needs, it would still be beneficial.
If all they accomplished was to meet the mean, the Mets starters are better than passable, in contrast to numerous bullpen players whose lifetime averages are insufficient. A pitcher with as extensive a career as Jose Quintana’s has such a wide spread between his best and worst seasons, and consequently, so do his career statistics. In fact, his 3.57 ERA with the Mets last season was better than his 3.74 lifetime ERA over the course of 12 MLB seasons.
The Mets will be very successful with five pitchers whose ERAs range from as low as whatever Kodai Senga can do to as low as the low 4.00s. When compared to many other teams’ fifth starters, Adrian Houser and his 4.29 lifetime ERA as a starter look excellent. Additionally, don’t discount his 1.76 ERA in relief outings.
1) Best-case scenario: With wise, temporary additions, the Mets are good enough to purchase at the trade deadline.
Generally speaking, being “good enough” is insufficient. Well, they are changing expectations. With so many more clubs in MLB now qualified for the playoffs, it’s more crucial to get in at all than to seed your team.
The NL’s sixth seed has won the pennant each of the last two seasons. We accept it with pleasure. First and foremost, the Mets must be competitive enough at the trade deadline to add some shrewd, temporary players to the team. No matter how they appear in 2024, they have to be careful not to waste too much in exchange for a championship opportunity.
Some years you should push yourself to the limit when it comes to the trade deadline, and other years you should take stock of yourself. The Mets shouldn’t give up too much of the future in the 2024 season. There is simply too much at stake to lose in the regular season or the opening round of the playoffs. Be not the Miami Marlins of 2023.
Don’t be the New York Mets in 2022 either. At the trade deadline, they fell short of expectations. We can be confident that David Stearns won’t do anything extremely wild to thwart his master plan based on the way he has conducted himself thus far.
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