It was inconsistent, sure, but he’s our inconsistent
Polarizing.
Frustrating.
Inconsistent.
It’s difficult to select just one adjective to best describe Aaron Nola’s 2023 campaign because there are so many to choose from. I could try to create stories, delve into the data, and give you the old “well, actually..” when it comes to his season, but that would be nearly impossible. Undoubtedly, there are advantages to be found, but overall, Nola’s season wasn’t that great.
At least, as good as we’ve come to expect.
32 G/GS, 193 2⁄3 IP, 105 R (96 ER), 5.7 BB%, 25.5 K%, 4.46 ERA (4.03 FIP), and 3.9 fWAR are the 2023 statistics.
The positive
How do you feel about your starters’ innings?
A starting pitcher’s ability to give his team six or more innings every time he takes the mound could influence your assessment of Nola’s season in certain ways. These days, pitchers rarely, if ever, miss a start, log 200+ innings pitched per season, and make more than 35 starts. Still, Nola acts in that manner. Even though he fell short of reaching his 200-inning peak this season, he was just one strong start away from doing so. It seems like ages ago that he last missed a start. In his career, he has made the third-most starts in which he has pitched at least six innings (22), this year.
There is value in that and something a lot of teams would (and almost did) pay money for.
He gave some excellent performances during the playoffs for the team that is dependent on its starters performing well. The Phillies could have been playing for a ring if he hadn’t struggled in the NLCS game six, but alas, the struggles from this season reared their ugly heads in that 2023 final start.
The negative
Therefore, it’s hard to hide the fact that Nola’s season wasn’t up to par with our expectations.
You can see a portion of the negative at the top. It was the best walk rate he’s had in a long time, the lowest strikeout rate since 2016, the best home run rate of his career (1.49 HR/9) and the third worst ERA he’s recorded since making his debut in 2015.
Did the pitch clock cause it? That was the subject of such extensive discussion that it is impossible to ignore. Recall that Nola ranked 26th in the game’s slowest worker by tempo among the 391 pitchers that Baseball Savant measured in 2022 when there were runners on base. It was obvious that he was uncomfortable being asked to abruptly alter every aspect of his professional life. It is said that despite the team’s best efforts, he was hampered in his ability to improve. It was, subjectively, a hindrance to him. Was that the only reason he was having trouble this year? Was it the cause at all? He was clearly troubled by the pitch clock introduction, though we’ll probably never hear from him directly.
The future
Of course, the vast amount of virtual ink that has been written about Aaron Nola’s future in Philadelphia this season—including whether or not they should re-sign him, how much money he may have made or lost, and how much demand he might actually have—is now moot. Like it or not, Nola is here to stay for the next seven years. Thus, let’s use this opportunity to reevaluate our future expectations for Nola.
He is no longer an Ace. Those days are gone, but I was firmly in the group of people who referred to him as a capital “A” Ace. He is the second starter in a rotation that can produce excellent work.
He is a step or two above a “league average innings muncher,” or LAIM. Although this phrase was coined for selecting starters in fantasy baseball, it is still applicable to real baseball. In baseball right now, there may not be a few starters who are more dependable for innings. Although it usually spells doom for the next season, we can reasonably expect Nola to pitch somewhere in the 3+ WAR range for 180+ innings of quality work.
There are going to be failures. There will be games where Nola turns in something less than ideal when he takes the ball, as demonstrated by this past season. Although it wasn’t something we were accustomed to in the past, it is happening more frequently these days. Is this disappointing? Of course, but the reason for that is that our expectations were not the same. If you make these adjustments now, you’ll find that you understand these starts when they occur.
Whether you liked it or not, Nola will be around for a while longer thanks to the extension that was granted to him. It’s probably not a good idea to wager that he will struggle as much as he did in 2023. His track record of excellence is too extensive to conclude that this was anything more than a passing phase in his career.
However, that doubt has now been voiced. And we’ll be wondering if the decline worsens over time unless he can demonstrate that it was, in fact, an isolated incident.