To meet with Yoshinobu Yamamoto and his family, Mets owner Steve Cohen and president of baseball operations David Stearns traveled to Japan last week.
The Mets and Yankees, along with numerous other teams, are vying for one of the most sought-after free agents in history, and Andy Martino of SNY reported that the trip appeared to help level the playing field.
The teams that are interested in signing the 25-year-old ace include the Mets, Yanks, Dodgers, Giants, Cubs, Red Sox, and Cardinals. We should find out in a few weeks where the ace will be pitching in 2024—and possibly for the next ten years.
Yamamoto is the Mets’ likely offseason focal point.
And they have a lot going for them as they try to seal the deal.
The world’s largest stage
San Francisco and Chicago are excellent cities. It’s well known that St. Louis has a devoted fan base. Many of the world’s most famous people call sunny, sun-drenched Los Angeles home.
But none of those places is New York.
Yamamoto reportedly wants to pitch in a big city, and NYC is the biggest of them all since it would give him access to everything he needs on the biggest stage in the world.
Naturally, the Yankees and the Mets provide the same New York City experience, but the Queens team may have an advantage over the others.
The sport’s wealthiest owner
The Mets now have the wealthiest owner in baseball in Cohen, who has demonstrated a willingness to go above and beyond in order to win, even if it means making the largest payroll in history or offering a free agent the highest average annual value.
Although Cohen’s checkbook doesn’t really have a limit, his appetite for paying ridiculously high luxury tax penalties certainly does. Every owner has a limit. The Mets, however, have the good news that they do not currently own any bad long-term contracts, and those contracts expire significantly after 2024, which may put them in a unique position to be the highest bidder on a deal for Yamamoto that could be worth up to $300 million over ten years.
It’s difficult to imagine the Mets not being the highest bidder, possibly by a significant margin if necessary, unless Cohen feels he’s being used to raise Yamamoto’s asking price.
The Giants have been pleading with a star to take their money for what seems like forever, and the Dodgers have a ton of money to spend as well. Thus, those groups ought to be taken very seriously.
While the Yankees are eager to become the first team to make payroll over $300 million, their financial situation raises doubts about their ability to make a high offer for Yamamoto.
As of right now, the Yanks have committed $128 million to four players through 2027: Carlos Rodon, Gerrit Cole, Giancarlo Stanton, and Aaron Judge. It’s highly unlikely that they will let Juan Soto walk, so if they extend his contract, that figure will increase to about $170 million for five players through 2027. Add another $30 million for Yamamoto, and their total spending for six players through 2027 comes to roughly $200 million.
Judge is not going anywhere. Both Stanton’s and Rodon’s contracts are currently non-negotiable.
It’s possible that the Yanks are willing to pay salaries significantly higher than $300 million for the next five years, which would result in significant annual luxury tax penalties. Perhaps they believe that 34 players can be compensated for $96 million over three years (the amount needed to avoid paying the top tax of $297 million if they are paying approximately $200 million to six players). Perhaps they’re ready to let Cole walk away rather than tie him down with a ninth-year contract extension if he decides to opt out after 2024.
If not, though, it’s difficult to imagine the Yanks making a high offer for Yamamoto.
Several of the top MLB players
There are two reasons why it shouldn’t really matter that the Mets had an extremely disappointing 2023 season.
First, the team still has the core of a 2022 squad that won 101 games.
Second, that core includes players like Edwin Diaz, Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor, and Pete Alonso, among the best in baseball. Additionally, it was expanded upon during the 2023 season of Lost when Francisco Alvarez and Kodai Senga joined.
With a 2023 contract expiring in 2031, Lindor ranked eighth in baseball’s MVP rankings.
Diaz is the best closer in the game and is signed through 2027.
Alonso, who will be a free agent in 2024 but is a strong candidate to sign a long-term contract with the Mets, leads all MLB home run scorers since his 2019 debut.
With a career OPS of.828 and a contract that expires in 2030, Nimmo is one of the most valuable center fielders in baseball. He is also a plus defender.
Senga had a 2.98 ERA in his rookie season and would have been the 2023 Rookie of the Year winner if not for Corbin Carroll’s ridiculous performance.
Alvarez could rank among the top catchers in baseball for the next ten years after hitting 25 home runs in his rookie season.
A farm system that is about to become elite
The bright side of the 2023 Mets’ incredible collapse was that Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander became Luis Angel Acuña, Drew Gilbert, and Ryan Clifford.
The Mets’ farm system is now among the top 10 in baseball thanks to those trades and a fantastic season from Jett Williams, who is just starting to show off.
And in the majors, that system should soon begin to pay off, with Acuna, Gilbert, and maybe even Williams making their big league debuts by 2024.
Creating a team destined for long-term success was Cohen’s primary objective upon purchasing the Mets. One of the key ways to do that is to have a farm system that consistently produces players capable of playing at the starting level.
Among baseball’s top executives
The Mets added one of the best and most respected executives in baseball when they hired Stearns at the start of the offseason.
Even though he’ll need to prove himself again after joining the Brewers in New York, there’s no reason to believe that an executive who used a fraction of the resources in Milwaukee to build a winning team won’t be successful in Queens.
Although Stearns will be taking big chances along the way, such as the one for Yamamoto, he may be somewhat methodical in his approach to molding the Mets.
It also fits with Cohen’s vision to be methodical but ready to act aggressively when necessary.
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The Mets are set up to be a consistent winner that challenges for World Series championships each year.
To be fair, the Mets are attempting to become the Dodgers, who are already that. They are also among baseball’s most illustrious teams. The Yankees, who had a brief hiatus in 2023 but have a history that is even more legendary than Los Angeles’, are comparable.
This isn’t a “legacy team” that the Mets can provide.
They are not the Dodgers, who won championships in the 1960s, 70s, 80s, and most recently in 2020. The Dodgers were legendary in Brooklyn and brought that success to Los Angeles.
Furthermore, they are not the Yankees, whose past includes Babe Ruth and the original Yankee Stadium. In more recent history, the Yanks have won eight World Series titles compared to the Mets’ two since the Mets’ founding in 1962.
The Mets are unable to travel back in time to 1903, when they founded the team, and defeat the Yankees’ 19 World Series victories prior to 1962. The Babe cannot be brought back to life, used to score the majority of his 714 home runs for them, and then retired as their No. 3.
But the Mets can outline why they are currently the best option for Yamamoto. And by making him the greatest offer, they can really drive home their interest. They’ll just need to wait and see if it’s sufficient after that.