The New York Mets are in serious need of weapons, as is well known. There are 12 spots available on the 40-man roster, so it’s likely that New York will be actively seeking out pitching this winter.
The Mets need both quality and quantity, but David Stearns shouldn’t try to sign any of the big names that are available. The team’s prospects of contending for a division in 2025 and later should not be hampered by decisions made during the offseason. These pitchers are not ones the Mets should be acquiring this winter, as 2024 is a transitional year for the team.
Pitchers The Mets Should Avoid This Winter
Brandon Woodruff
Pitchers who have recently undergone major shoulder surgery and have not been tendered are usually not in high demand. That isn’t the case for Brandon Woodruff, though. Most of 2024, if not all of it, will be missed by the 30-year-old. But teams prefer to give someone in his position a two-year contract in the hopes that he will fully recover by 2025. In 2024, every inning pitched would be bonus.
For two reasons, the Mets shouldn’t sign this pitcher. First, rather than in 2025, the team needs innings in 2024. There are currently just two trustworthy starters and three unproven options in the rotation. Five of the Mets’ top 20 prospects (per MLB) ought to be ready to make an impact in the big league rotation by the year 2025. They will be joined by Kodai Senga, the three unproven free agents mentioned earlier, and possible off-season additions in 2024 (perhaps Yoshinobu Yamamoto).
Right now, the Mets need arms, and Woodruff isn’t able to supply them. Additionally, the Mets might be better off signing a free agent like Corbin Burnes or Gerrit Cole (if he opts out) by the time Woodruff is ready to contribute fully, assuming no setbacks.
Second, Woodruff’s prospective contract is unlikely to be very valuable, so the Mets shouldn’t sign him. According to reports, Woodruff has a sizable market that could drive a potential contract up to the $30 million, two-year range. Teams use this kind of arrangement to acquire the pitcher in year two for less than market value. His contract is probably inflated to the point where it loses sufficient value due to intense competition on the free agent market.
The Mets should use that money elsewhere because they are not fully committed to 2024. Spending $30 million on arms who can pitch in 2024 and either get traded at the deadline or prove to be trustworthy pitchers in 2025–2026 is a wise move. The Mets are not in a position to risk it with Woodruff.
Tyler Glasnow
Tyler Glasnow, in contrast to Woodruff, is well and expected to make a contribution in 2024. He is a pitcher, though, and the Mets shouldn’t sign him given his history of injuries, contract situation, and acquisition price.
Glasnow has a long history of injuries despite only being 30 years old. It is unlikely that he will be healthy for Opening Day, much less the entire season. That being said, teams are willing to carry him on the roster because of his exceptional production. Even though he doesn’t make 30 starts, his outstanding play, even in just 20, greatly increases a team’s potential.
But because Glasnow is expensive in a trade and only has a one-year contract, the Mets shouldn’t sign him. This kind of person would be a good fit for a team hoping to win the World Series in 2024. The Mets are not that. New York is placing a strong emphasis on systemic organizational depth. The team’s depth, which was already lacking, will be reduced by trading for Glasnow, and the move won’t have a significant enough impact to raise the squad’s level of competition. The Mets need to acquire players with several years of control if they trade away young players.
It could be argued that the Rays’ financial predicament should be exploited by the Mets. In addition to Glasnow’s $25 million salary, New York is able to pay for another contract (such as the $12 million that Manuel Margot, a veteran the Mets were linked to, still owes). The player package going to Tampa Bay would be reduced by this trade arrangement. If Glasnow leaves the team after the season, the Mets may be able to recover some of the depth by flipping them at the deadline or by receiving a draft pick through a qualifying offer.
However, if Glasnow sustains another significant injury, this plan is doomed. For the Mets, a trade involves too many moving pieces and unpredictability.
Which Pitchers Need the Mets’ Attention?
Whatever position the Mets fill in the offseason should benefit the 2025 team and beyond. The Mets are not out of the running for the World Series by one or two players. But they have brought in enough young talent to potentially complement the current core of star players if they continue to grow. The emphasis on those players’ development, both in the majors and minors, should be placed on them in 2024.
There are a ton of pitchers that will be impact players in 2025–2027, not just 2024, who are available via trade and free agency. One or two of these inexpensive arms must be the Mets’ priority. Once they have one or two bounce-back candidates on short-term deals that should ideally have value at the trade deadline, they can finish the rotation. Steve Cohen should be able to use every dollar he spends this winter to benefit more than just the Mets team of 2024.