Diogo Jota is suddenly Liverpool’s second-longest-serving attacker after Mohamed Salah, of course, once Sadio Mané leaves in 2022 and Roberto Firmino says goodbye to Anfield this year.
For a reported £41 million, the Portuguese player left Wolverhampton Wanderers in the summer of 2021. With no previous connections to the former Atlético Madrid player prior to Paul Joyce’s tweet, the move was somewhat of a shock at the time.
His first season with the team exceeded everyone’s expectations, or at least exceeded the predictions made at the time by one Wolves supporter.
In 1,760 minutes of football in all competitions, Jota scored 13 goals, including a hat-trick against Atalanta on the road in the Champions League.
It took him two months to win the club’s Player of the Month title, but on a Champions League or Merseyside Derby day, he was the ideal complement to a Liverpool assault that lacked depth save for Divock Origi.
Although Jota’s injury and following three-month absence at the beginning of December were mostly to blame for Liverpool’s season-long problems, Jürgen Klopp’s ability to rotate the attack and make tactical adjustments was greatly impacted.
He bounced back, and in 2021/22, he scored 21 goals in all competitions as Liverpool came dangerously close to winning the quadruple. That was his highest goal total in a season to that point. In that year, he made 55 appearances, starting 39 of them. He progressed from being Roberto Firmino’s backup centre forward to being frequently chosen above the player.
Jota’s Liverpool career has been sailing through somewhat rougher waters ever since. Halfway through the 2021–2022 season, Luis Díaz signed, and six months later, PSV’s Darwin Núñez made a huge money move to join, and Cody Gakpo arrived. Jota’s spot in the starting lineup was jeopardised by all of these additions as well as injuries, one of which prevented him from competing in the World Cup in Qatar.
However, this season has been the 26-year-old’s greatest goal-scoring season to date. In comparison to his first (0.66), second (0.53), and third (0.45) seasons with the club, his 0.77 goals per 90 is greater than it was during any of the seasons Liverpool’s number 20 spent at Paços de Ferreira, Porto, or Wolves. Even though he hasn’t scored a point this season yet, his fundamental statistics are among the best of his career; his 2022–2023 campaign will only match or surpass his 0.22 expected assists per 90 and 1.47 key passes per 90 (of which he has already played nearly half the minutes 12 games into this campaign).
Jota has appeared in 12 of Liverpool’s 14 games this season as November approaches. Of the twelve, he has started nine. Rather than discouraging him, the increased competition for his posts seems to have had the opposite effect.
What then makes him so successful?
Let’s start by taking a look at the games Jota has played this season. Naturally, he is a versatile player who can play off the left wing, through the middle, and, if necessary, on the right side. This year, he has split his minutes between the two, making seven trips to the left and five to the middle. Here is his Premier League heatmap, courtesy of SofaScore:
Jota has covered a wide range of ground throughout the pitch, as he always does. He prefers to drive at defenders after dropping deep to take up the ball. In a manner, he isn’t particularly affected by starting in the middle or on the left. Because of the subtleties of the left-wing position at Liverpool, the player in that position frequently enters centre areas, creating space for players like Curtis Jones or Ryan Gravenberch to enter.
Jota is more comfortable starting from the left than the centre, in a way. The opposition right-back (or, if facing a back three, the outside right center-back) will inevitably mark you as the left winger. Those players tend to be more attacking-focused in the modern game, so when Jota moves inside, they usually don’t follow, giving him more room to make a penetrating run.
Let’s take a peek at his Sunday opening.
Because to Alexis Mac Allister’s mistake in midfield, Liverpool already has the numerical advantage and can launch a transitional attack. With Salah providing the feed for Núñez’s run, Liverpool concentrates their attack on the right side, drawing the two remaining defenders towards him with his gravitational pull. Even though Forest’s defence is obviously inadequate, Jota gains advantages from being on that side.
He stays close to his closest marker’s blindside and keeps holding his run until Turner parries the Uruguayan’s shot out and Jota has ample room to tap it in, all while avoiding suspicion that he is there.
It might seem quite cliché, but this isn’t a coincidence with Jota. It’s a situation he finds himself in time and time again, popping up with one or two touch finishes in the box in space that sends opposition managers in a fit of red-faced rage.
The shot map for the Portuguese international’s Premier League season thus far is shown above (source: Understat.com). The objectives are shown by green, as you might expect. His three league goals, from the matches against Bournemouth, West Ham, and Forest, are all incredibly near to the goal. Teams are attempting to go closer to the goal and taking less long shots—because, naturally, they tend to be easier to get into the goal—as part of the football xG-ification.
I’m not saying Jota is the ideal attacker, mind you; he has his shortcomings, and I’m not above being frustrated with him. However, he is among the finest attackers when it comes to consistently creating these high-caliber opportunities, which provides Klopp with a reliable threat from the start or off the bench. Although his goal against Toulouse wasn’t too horrible, his ball carrying isn’t the cleanest or most effective, and he can be irritating at times, but he is a surefire goal scorer.
Out of his nine professional football seasons, he only has two where he failed to score ten goals in all competitions: 2016–17 with Porto and 2021/22 (both with reduced gametime, for reference). According to the stats, he is not the best finisher.
Over the course of his career, he has had precisely one fewer season where he underperformed his expected goals as he has seasons where he outperformed them, making him average. It doesn’t matter, though, because most top attackers aren’t elite finishers; what matters is how frequently they get those opportunities, as more volume equals more chances of scoring.
No matter the game, no matter the situation, Jota will consistently get you chances. He’s also elite at getting those ‘second chance’ opportunities (scoring from a goalkeeper save or the break of the ball in the box). Him staying healthy changes everything for Klopp this season, you’re essentially adding a minimum of ten goals (and he’s already on six) to your total, and he gives you the option to change the game from the bench, or rest those deemed to be the ‘starters’ (even if that’s not so clear at Liverpool).
This season has the potential to be Jota’s best at the club, surpassing his 21 goals back in 2021/22.
He has a prominent role in the Europa League, and Andy Headspeath of Anfield Watch believes he will be the competition’s top scorer. Whether he is or is not, Liverpool’s prospects of winning this year are substantially increased by a fit and effective Jota.