I’m not feeling any better because of this.

I realize it’s helping many of you by stating the Chiefs were “lucky,” but I will never be a good time to try to cheer us up after the Super Bowl loss.

Now look, saying a team got lucky rather than “was better” is poor form. Almost as bad as “You didn’t beat them, they beat themselves.”

However, there could be some validity to it. David Lombardi of The Athletic obtained information on playoff teams since 2018  from Tom Bliss, a statistician who unearths all kinds of strange numbers. There were 80 teams in the NFL playoffs since 2018 when Bliss completed her stint on them at all times. Take a peek at the top team: who’s number 1:

Let’s shatter an incorrect narrative…. There have been 80 playoff teams since 2018. In @DataWithBliss‘ data-driven measure of luck (fumble recoveries, opponents’ drops/FGs), here are the “luck” ranks of those 80:
2023 Chiefs: #1
2023 49ers: #69
Aiyuk’s NFCCG catch included
I suppose luck was on the Chiefs’ side because they recovered six of the seven fumbles on the ground, but that’s football, and the 49ers still lost. Officiating doesn’t seem to affect the luck score, but even if it did, I couldn’t even modify my JRPG characters to have that high of a luck stat.
While it’s certainly a bad idea to say the “Chiefs got lucky,” if we examine the above, there is some factual support for the statement. Essentially, one of the unluckiest teams over the previous six years—the 2023 49ers—lost to the club with the best record over that same period.

Take note of how this begins in 2018. If they go further back, I wonder where the Seattle Seahawks are ranked. The Chiefs resembled some of the strangeness we witnessed with those Seattle teams in terms of how they played. On the other hand, the 49ers haven’t won a Super Bowl in the previous 20 years whereas Seattle has.

The 49ers weren’t very lucky, but they did have some incredible offensive and even defensive performances. I suppose luck is preferable to good.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *