In the end, the New York Mets’ past off-season swings weren’t as successful as they had hoped.In the end, the New York Mets’ previous off-season swings weren’t as successful as they had hoped.
The days of Justin Verlander are over. Max Scherzer has departed. Positively, Kodai Senga, who is just entering the second year of a five-year contract, demonstrated his ability to manage a rotation in his debut season by recording a 2.98 ERA in 29 starts. Closer Edwin Díaz missed all of last season with an injury to his right knee, but he should be recovered and ready to play for 2024. That’s a significant addition to the roster if he is correct.
Afterwards, there are the actual additions that the Mets made this winter: Luis Severino (one year, $13 million), Joey Wendle (one year, $2 million), Jorge López (one year, $2 million), Harrison Bader (one year, $10.5 million), and Sean Manaea (two years, $28 million). There is a lot to appreciate about the Mets offseason thus far, but these agreements vary from significant to possible bounce-back contenders. Even a few trade-in acquisitions have occurred.
In 2024, will they be able to defeat the Philadelphia Phillies or Atlanta Braves? Most likely not. But they ought to be better than the squad that won 75–87 games the previous season. Let’s examine the roster’s effect from these signings.
The New York Mets acquire weapons
Of the pitchers the New York Mets have signed thus far, Sean Manaea is maybe the most intriguing steal. During the season, he had a 4.44 ERA, but in the second half, that figure plummeted to 3.43, almost coinciding with the addition of a sweeper to his toolbox.
Batters only hit.140 off that sweeper, which had the greatest whiff rate of any of his deliveries at 35.1%. After spending part of the off-season at Driveline, he also increased the velocity of his four-seamer by two ticks while playing for the Giants last season. In 2024, Manaea might be a reliable number three starter for the Mets if his newly discovered sweeper is the genuine deal.
Over the previous five seasons, Luis Severino hasn’t amassed a lot of innings pitched; he has only once reached 100 frames, in 2022, when he threw 102 innings with a 3.18 ERA. He pitched 89 1/3 innings with a 6.65 ERA in the previous season. It appears that he has been tipping his pitches, which is one cause for the difficult season. Andy Martino mentioned that he had heard Severino has a lot of tips—roughly ten. Jerry Blevins, the former reliever for the New York Mets, stated on SNY that he believes this is a simple repair that could be fixed by simply sliding his glove slightly to conceal the ball from the first and third base coaches. Should this problem indeed be that straightforward, Sevvy’s career stats—which included a 3.39 ERA going into the previous season—may return. Hopefully, that production will be accompanied by further innings.
Next is right-hand reliever Jorge López, who will be starting his 31st season. Despite having a 5.51 career ERA, one interesting fact about López is that, during his three seasons with the Brewers at the beginning of his career, he had a combined 3.69 ERA and appeared to be on the rise before being dealt to the Royals. During that phase of López’s career, David Stearns, the president of baseball operations for the New York Mets, was a member of Milwaukee. That bond and familiarity between them could be beneficial to the Mets in ’24. Additionally, the righty was severely hurt by the long ball in 2023, giving up 12 home runs as opposed to just four in 2022. It could help keep a few balls in the yard because he plays his home games at Citi Field, which has just shifted to a pitcher-friendly stadium.
Another player Stearns knows a little bit about is Adrian Houser. A couple of stops along the way to New York, Houser was drafted by the Houston Astros and traded to the Milwaukee Brewers. However, the right-hander was chosen by Houston the year before Stearns arrived, and the Brewers acquired him just months before Stearns moved from Houston to Milwaukee. This marks the initial instance where Stearns has genuinely got Houser on board.
Notwithstanding this, he has a 4.00 career ERA and has put up respectable numbers of innings over the last three seasons—111.3 in 2023, to be exact. He serves as the Mets’ reliable fifth option. They might not even be finished yet.
The New York Mets prioritize offensive acquisitions over defense.
With so many good bats in the lineup, the New York Mets will need to keep everyone healthy in order to succeed. Because of this, the offensive additions may not seem impressive at first, but when you consider their potential on the field, they may wind up becoming essential parts of the machine that keep everything running smoothly.
After spending a season with the Yankees and Reds, Harrison Bader, the anticipated centerfielder for the Mets, hit a combined.232 with a.274 OBP and a career-worst 70 wRC+ (100 is league average). On the other hand, Bader is among the greatest center defense players in the league, completing 2023 with nine Outs Above Average, good for seventh place at the position. After Rafael Ortega led the team with one OAA and Brandon Nimmo finished at exactly league average, this will be a major improvement for the Mets in 2024. Bader is expected to combine his outstanding defense with a slight offensive rebound (93 wRC+).
Joey Wendle, who will turn 34 this season, completes the Mets’ roster of three former Oakland A’s, having already included Mark Canha, Starling Marte, and Adam Kolarek in the previous campaign and Canha, Marte, and Chris Bassitt in the following one. This year, Marte, Wendle, and Manaea will carry out that duty.
Wendle did not do well in his two seasons with the Miami Marlins. When he played shortstop last season, his wRC+ fell to 47 from an impressive 84 in 2022. He has spent much of his career playing second base, where he has regularly played strong defense, although he has also seen time at short and third. With Brett Baty, Jeff McNeill, and Francisco Lindor in those three spots, the Mets are pretty well covered, but Wendle’s versatility should be useful to give players a day off every now and then.
Forecasts for the New York Mets give optimism for 2024.
We’ve discussed the team’s recent transactions and the kind of impact the New York Mets want to see from each, but let’s look at the projected results. The total fWAR that will be lost if all of the team’s 2023 departures are added together, including Trevor Gott, Adam Ottavino, and Carlos Carrasco. A total of 1.8 fWAR is predicted for those same 12 players, with 61% of that coming from Carrasco’s 1.1 estimate.
All you need to add to the team is Severino (1.6), Bader (1.6), and Manaea (2.0), for a projected fWAR of 5.2. Wendle (0.4), López (0.2), Michael Tonkin (0.2), and Austin Adams (0.2) are added, resulting in an additional win and a total of 6.2 fWAR. There is a difference of 4.4 WAR just in free agents between what the team is losing in free agency and what they have already added this winter.
As a roughly league average bat, Tyrone Taylor is projected for 0.7 WAR, and as a league average pitcher, Houser adds another 0.9 WAR. This adds another six WAR to the total. “League average” might not sound thrilling, but it’s a crucial component of creating a winning team that gets overlooked. The Mets are a club with a lot of stars, thus the more league average guys you have to round out the roster, the better the squad will play together. The absence of league-average players to support Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani caused the Angels to struggle even with two of the finest players in baseball. The Mets won’t commit the same error twice.
Although forecasts are not used to determine wins or losses in baseball, they could be a useful tool if you’re hoping to find a reason to get enthusiastic about New York Mets baseball in 2024.