With the conclusion of the AFC and NFC divisional playoffs, the final teams standing in the conference championship games prior to Super Bowl 58 are revealed.
Detroit, Kansas City, San Francisco, and Baltimore deserve congratulations for making it this far. The 49ers and Chiefs played here in Super Bowl 57 the previous year, with one team winning and the other losing. When compared to other teams in either conference, the Ravens and Lions are a little surprising to be in this spot, but their excellent coaching and talent have shown them to be playoff contenders.
Here’s a final, modified version of Sporting News NFL power rankings for the postseason, ranking the remaining teams according to their actual chance of winning the championship versus their current odds at sportsbooks to win Super Bowl 58:
1. 49ers (+145)
Why Super Bowl 58 will be won by the 49ers
1. It’s all about the offense. George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, and Christian McCaffrey have been Brock Purdy’s most healthy offensive skill star backup. When Purdy is sure and precise in his passing to those weapons all over the field, the 49ers are almost unstoppable. This is especially true if Purdy can heal Deebo Samuel’s shoulder injury, which kept him out of the divisional playoffs.
When the matchup demands it, the 49ers can easily switch to rushing McCaffrey heavily to relieve pressure on Purdy. Sometimes it seems like the 49ers almost stop themselves, either by becoming overly cute or by Purdy making mistakes when a pass rush does manage to get to him.
2. Defensive front seven.The ideal situation for the 49ers would be to rush the quarterback with a front-four pass rush, with Nick Bosa leading the charge. They can now keep seven players in coverage, including Dre Greenlaw and Fred Warner, two rangy linebackers.
They can take control of a game if they set the terms against any offensive line, running game, or short passing game. It’s hard to break that up when they lick their chops in pursuit of quarterbacks and eat up the run with their healthy beef inside.
3. Their past playoff disappointment. The 49ers know it’s disappointing to have only one recent Super Bowl appearance — a loss to the Chiefs in Super Bowl 54 — based on how successful the Kyle Shanahan era has been offensively and defensively. There’s a sense they are overdue to lift the Lombardi Trophy with this group to end their 28-year title drought. The 49ers were determined and focused after last year’s injury mess against the Eagles to return to the championship game, and there are a couple more games left before their goal is complete.
Why Super Bowl 58 will not be won by the 49ers
1. Pass coverage in the secondary. Although the 49ers have the reliable Charvarius Ward at cornerback, when the pass rush isn’t getting home, there may be some downfield errors involving Deommodore Lenoir and Ambry Thomas that result in big plays. They are lucky that rookie Ji’Ayir Brown and journeyman Tashaun Gipson are playing well at safety and don’t miss injured safety Talanoa Hufanga (knee) as much as was anticipated.
2. Brock Purdy has left once more. Midway through the season, Purdy experienced a few rough games that resulted in a three-game losing streak. There’s no reason why he should pass poorly when he still has Trent Williams, his left tackle, and his other important offensive skill players. He was a little nervous when he threw the ball against the Packers, but McCaffrey’s late-game comfort helped him get away with it. With the stakes higher, the 49ers won’t have the same luck twice.
3. Injuries. The 49ers lost Purdy against the Eagles last season and had no shot with no healthy QBs. Now the 49ers are dealing with Samuel on the shelf again. They also took a hit when Williams got hurt and had to miss crucial time in some games. They can’t afford to lose any more of their core players on either side of the ball vs. stronger competition.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (+350)
Why Super Bowl 58 will be won by the Chiefs
1. The defense. All season long, the Chiefs’ defense has been very effective. With an average of just 289.8 yards per game allowed, they were ranked second in terms of total defense. With only the Ravens ahead of them in scoring defense, they were ranked No. 2 with 17.3 points allowed per game. In the divisional round, the Chiefs did allow the Bills to accumulate some rushing yards and points, but they tightened things up in the end with their coverage, pressure, and run-stopping.
Chris Jones and George Karlaftis lead the unrelenting pass rush inside-outside up front. L’Jarius Sneed and Trent McDuffie are stingy on their assignments downfield. The linebackers remain a key foundation for Steve Spagnuolo’s calculated attack. The Chiefs are loaded vs. the pass and can protect their sometimes vulnerable run defense situationally. Defenses still can win championships, even on a team still known for offense first.
2. Patrick Mahomes. Have you noticed that Mahomes’s postseason form has made us forget about his dismal regular season form? His play against the Dolphins and Bills in the playoffs has looked fantastic, and in his first-ever road playoff game in Buffalo, he improved even more with his arm and legs. He regained his deep-shot ability last week, building on his confidence in tight end Travis Kelce and wide receiver Rashee Rice. In the playoffs, Mahomes discovers a new gear at a time when Andy Reid is increasing his play-calling intensity for him. Mahomes, like Tom Brady did for the Patriots, can lead the Chiefs to a third ring primarily through his incisive play.
3. Travis Kelce’s “Love Story.” Kelce isn’t washed. He is not any less for dating the biggest pop star in the world. Not as ready as his older brother Jason to retire. Travis Kelce ended his seven-game scoring drought with two huge touchdowns in Buffalo, proving that he is still Mahomes’ go-to target and main threat in the red zone. Kelce was attached to Mahomes before he met Taylor Swift, and the two of them are currently the most productive scoring tandem in playoff history. Kelce appears revitalized and prepared to assist his quarterback in winning a third ring.
Why Super Bowl 58 will not be won by the Chiefs
1. Mahomes doesn’t have enough weapons. Other than rookie Rice, the Chiefs’ wide receiver problems are well-documented. The fact that Mahomes and deep threat Marquez Valdes-Scantling rekindled their partnership against the Bills was crucial. Still, as Mecole Hardman’s red-zone fumble loss in the divisional round and all those drops from everyone during the regular season show, trailing Rice, MVS, and Kelce too far in the passing game can be risky. Mahomes has his trust circle in place once more, but it needs to be expanded a bit to reach its full potential.
2. Forgetting to run the ball. Did you see Isiah Pacheco deliver “angry run’ after angry run against the Bills? Did you see Creed Humphrey and the rest offensive line flex their athleticism to open up holes for chunk bursts? Let’s hope Andy Reid did, too. Pacheco got 24 carries against the Dolphins for 89 yards and a TD, showing the savvy renewed commitment to the power run to lift Mahomes.
Pacheco was harder to stop against the Bills, needing just 15 carries to produce 97 yards and another huge touchdown. Although Reid riding Pacheco—or any back—in the postseason is nothing new, he can’t avoid it now that he is aware of the Ravens’ greatest defensive vulnerability.
3. Run defense. The Chiefs gave up 4.5 yards per carry in the regular season, and they got pounded pretty well by Josh Allen and James Cook in the divisional round before tightening up inside late. The Chiefs know that the Ravens, 49ers, and Lions are all ready and willing to run the ball often to facilitate their passing. Baltimore presents a Buffalo-like challenge with its QB leading the rushing mix. The Chiefs can’t put themselves in a position to keep getting run over.
3. Baltimore Ravens (+195)
Why Super Bowl 58 will go to the Ravens
1. Lamar Jackson, the MVP twice. As a running-oriented rising quarterback star in 2019, Jackson had an incredible MVP campaign; however, in ’23, he was a better quarterback overall. He has reestablished himself as the most potent dual-threat in the game with his explosive passing and running. He’s looser and fresh off the greatest playoff performance of his career, demolishing the Texans with his arms and legs. With Jackson leading the way, the Ravens can win it all.
2. The rush of passes. In 2023, the Ravens recorded a league-high 60 sacks. Given that they only had one player in double digits—defensive tackle Justin Madubuike, who scored a team-high 12.5—that was impressive. The wealth was distributed among the front seven and blitzers from the secondary, with well-traveled players Jadeveon Clowney (9.5) and Kyle Van Noy (9) standing out among the others. Under brilliant coordinator Mike MacDonald, the Ravens can accomplish their goals both inside and outside the stadium. They excel at changing up their pressure points.
3. Red-zone offense. Although the 49ers and Lions performed better in the red zone during the regular season, once a team is inside their 20-yard line, Baltimore rarely needs to use Justin Tucker. Throughout the season, the Ravens’ touchdown percentage was only 63%, but recently, they have increased it to nearly 82%. Running back Gus Edwards and quarterback Jackson, when on short passes or bursts, are difficult to stop when in scoring position, and offensive coordinator Todd Monken can keep opponents guessing with his viable, adaptable options. That gains even more momentum with tight end Mark Andrews (leg) expected to make a comeback.
Why Super Bowl 58 will not be won by the Ravens
1. Run defense. With 105.4 rushing yards allowed per game during the regular season, the Ravens’ run defense ranking was No. 13. Additionally, they gave up 4.5 rushing yards for every try. If a team continues to run through the second half of a close game against the Ravens, volume will lead to effective results. In addition, the Ravens would rather not wear out their non-traditional weakness up front by wearing down the quarterback for MacDonald by sticking with their game plan.
2. Insufficient huge pass plays. Under Todd Monken, the Ravens have excelled at moving the ball downfield as Jackson distributes it to his wide receivers. Using that mindset to spread the field of play, Jackson recorded a career-high 8.0 yards per attempt. These intermediate-to-deep shots are now a standard component of the passing game, although in the past they were more strategic when played off the run. A defense would have a greater chance to leave the field at some point if Jackson could prevent the Ravens from executing those drives, as it would force them to endure longer ones.
3. Penalties. Remember, the Cowboys, Browns, Texans, Bills, and Packers are all gone, leaving the Ravens as the team with the most penalties still in the postseason. The only team fined for more yards than its 955 total was the Cowboys. With only three penalties applied against them totaling 15 yards, the Ravens outperformed the Texans, who were 11-for-70. The main issue is defensive pass interference, since they were called for it 13 times.
4. Detroit Lions (+800)
Why Super Bowl 58 will be won by the Lions
1. Run defense. Despite giving up just 87.6 yards of rushing per game, the Lions concluded the regular season ranked second in the league. They have strong interior line play, and in addition to his explosive edge rush, defensive end Aidan Hutchinson is a competent run-stopper. In order to have a shot with Hutchinson and other players getting to the quarterback, Detroit must make teams one-dimensional.
2. A game that is running. Initially, the Lions’ running game against the Buccaneers was difficult until their strong offensive line, which was battling injuries, eventually wore down the opposition front. The explosive rookie Jahmyr Gibbs led the rushing onslaught that erupted in the game-winning fourth quarter.
Throughout the entire season, Gibbs and former Bear David Montgomery have offered a potent, quick one-two punch that continues into the red zone. The Lions are difficult to beat when both are effective in the same game because it affects QB Jared Goff and the defense as a whole.
3. The spirit of the underdog. Since taking over as head coach, Dan Campbell has encouraged the Lions to raise their game. Because they recognize themselves in him as a former player, the players in Detroit adore him and want to win for him just as much as they do for themselves.
Under his direction, the Lions were able to turn things around very fast—no one had any idea how quickly. Few people thought the Lions were capable of winning two playoff games, much less one. It is impossible to overlook the drive to become stronger while disproving the doubts of many.
Why Super Bowl 58 will not be won by the Lions
1. Make a pass on defense. With 253.4 passing yards per game allowed, the Lions concluded the regular season ranked No. 30 in the league. When their quarterbacks were given time, the Rams (367 yards from Matthew Stafford) and Buccaneers (349 yards from Baker Mayfield) were able to exploit Detroit’s coverage, which allowed them to stay in the game late.
The Lions struggle to contain tight ends and are especially susceptible to huge pass plays outside in single coverage.
2. The road game of quarterback Jared Goff. Throughout his tenure with the Rams and Lions, Goff hasn’t been the same quarterback on the road in terms of output or efficiency by any measure. That implies that he struggles in adverse weather conditions or in situations where the opposition becomes stronger in order to strengthen his defenses.
After having the good fortune to begin the playoffs with two games at Ford Field, Goff must overcome this narrative. Detroit would have to put an end to its party-crashing fun if he plays poorly or shakily in San Francisco.
3. Insufficient experience. Goff led the Rams to the 53rd Super Bowl. Prior to their current run, a few other team veterans have seen success in the playoffs. All things considered, though, under the direction of fiery, astute general manager Brad Holmes and youthful, rebuilding coach Campbell, this squad is ahead of schedule and the best is still to come.
With a young, developing core, Detroit has time on its side this time, but generally, their postseason equity is not nearly as strong as what San Francisco, Kansas City, and Baltimore have developed as established powers.