For the most of the season, the San Francisco 49ers were the clear favorite to win the Super Bowl. The Packers of Green Bay? Not in that way.
“Just looking back here, even after the Broncos game, I don’t think anybody in this locker room would’ve thought we’d be playing in a divisional game against the 49ers,” right guard Jon Runyan said this week.
The Packers have had an incredible run. They have defeated the Chargers, Lions, and Chiefs in back-to-back weeks, but they have also strangely lost to the Giants and Buccaneers. Nevertheless, they have bounced back to win their final three regular season games and to face the Cowboys in the wild-card round.
Are the Packers able to repeat? No. Here are three reasons why the 49ers will defeat the Packers and bring their season to an end once more on Saturday in their NFC Divisional playoff game.
Overabundance of Playmakers
Perhaps the best bunch of skill position players in the NFL is on the 49ers. In terms of total yards (2,023) and rushing yards (1,459), running back Christian McCaffrey topped the NFL. NFL receiver Brandon Aiyuk was second with a 17.9-yard average and seventh with 1,342 receiving yards. Deebo Samuel, a receiver, topped 1,100 yards in total with 892 receiving yards and 225 running yards. George Kittle had the highest average of 15.7 among tight ends and 1,020 receiving yards.
That makes four guys with more over 1,000 scrimmage yards. The gifted Packers had none.
So where do you even begin, Joe Barry, defensive coordinator? Their offensive line is as deep and varied as Green Bay’s, but better.
“I have an incredible amount of respect for Kyle (Shanahan) as a coach, as a play-caller,” Barry said. “When you put all the pieces that he has around him, they’re elite at a lot of spots – the running back, the tight end, the wideouts – and when you add that to a guy that’s arguably one of the best at calling plays, he’s got a lot of toys to play with and he does a great job.”
It doesn’t matter if Brock Purdy is an excellent quarterback or a quarterback with top numbers. It’s an excellent passing game. After Aiyuk caught 75 passes, McCaffrey caught 67, Kittle caught 65, and Samuel caught 60. Each of the four players has exceptional yards-after-catch ability, making them all threats to go the distance on every play in this well-balanced assault.
Purdy led the NFL in passing yards per game (278.7), touchdowns per attempt (9.64), and passer rating (113.0), despite having four interceptions in the game versus Baltimore. The yards per attempt was third-best in the Super Bowl era and led the league by a wide margin.
“I think it’d be unfair to Brock Purdy and the way he’s played since he’s been there to say, ‘Oh, he’s just playing good because he’s got great players around him,’” Barry said. “It helps to have great pieces but any offense that has success, you instantly have to look at the triggerman. You talk about from an efficiency standpoint, ever since he’s taken control of that huddle since he got his first start, the efficiency’s incredible.”
Inability to Contain McCaffrey
Purdy has done a fantastic job, but McCaffrey is the foundation.
“He’s the GOAT, man. He’s the GOAT,” defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt said. “You can watch it on film, watch it on TV, he’s the GOAT. We definitely have to have a plan for him.”
McCaffrey won the NFL running title by over 300 yards with 1,459 rushing yards. He was the only player this season to reach 2,000 yards and topped the league for the second time in his career with 2,023 total yards.
According to Pro Football Focus, McCaffrey was first among 41 running backs with at least 125 rushing attempts in terms of yards per carry (5.36), 10-yard runs (44, 11 more than any other player), forced missed tackles (60), and yards after contact per carry (3.42).
“He’s in the group with the elite guys,” 49ers run-game coordinator and offensive line coach Chris Foerster told reporters this week. “Working with a Peyton Manning, you work with a Jonathan Ogden, you work with some of these guys that are Hall of Fame type players that prepare as nobody else does.
“They’re almost crazy about their preparation. They’re never going to let up. They leave no stone unturned as far as game planning, as far as work, as far as their physical preparation, and Christian’s in that group of just elite players like that. There’s been a handful, but they’re generational-type players.”
For years, Green Bay’s run defense has been flawed. No club has given up more running yards per attempt than Matt LaFleur’s squad during his tenure as coach. They finished a respectable 23rd this year with 4.42 yards per attempt.
Although the previous three games versus Dallas, Minnesota, and Chicago have been promising, those opponents don’t have particularly strong passing offenses. If McCaffrey continues to tear off five- or six-yard runs, the Packers have no chance of winning. However, they also cannot win if they overjudge the situation and let Purdy and the passing game destroy them.
“It’s a challenge because he’s definitely fast, physical,” Wyatt said. “We’ve got great guys on the D-line, too – me, Kenny, Preston Smith, Rashan Gary. We’re going against a great O-line, ourselves. It’s definitely going to be a challenge for us. Just do our job and we’ll be good, I promise you.”
Defensive Front Pressures
The offensive line of Green Bay, led by Aaron Jones and Jordan Love, is clicking. But even after dominating the Cowboys defense under Micah Parsons last week, the Packers haven’t seen a defensive front like San Francisco’s.
defensive end The second choice in the 2019 NFL Draft was Nick Bosa, the 2022 Defensive Player of the Year. As the second choice in the 2020 draft, Chase Young—who was acquired after the trade deadline—won Rookie of the Year. The seventeenth pick in the 2015 draft was Arik Armstead. With the Eagles, Javon Hargrave played in the Pro Bowl.
Coach Matt LaFleur called them “freak shows.”
Last week, the Packers handled Dallas’ defensive line. The Cowboys don’t have many exceptional players on their roster, other than Parsons. Conversely, the 49ers are loaded.
“You look at their roster and not only are most of them first-round picks, but most of them are top-10 picks,” offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said. “So, they have talent. They have a lot of talent. I have a lot of respect for how they’re coached. I have a lot of respect for how they play. They play physically. They get up the field.
“They do a really good job in their scheme, so it’s going to be a huge challenge for us. I’m excited for that challenge. This young group that we have, I’m really excited to see how they come out there and how they play. It’s going to be a great environment vs. a really good opponent, so it’s going to be a huge test for us.”
Zach Tom on the right and Rasheed Walker on the left are Green Bay’s second-year offensive tackles, and they will be crucial. After seeing a lot of Parsons last week, Tom—who has developed into a terrific starter—will see a lot of Bosa on Saturday.
Last year, Bosa had the most sacks (18.5) in the NFL. Pro Football Focus reports that despite having “only” 10.5 this season, he was third in pressures and fourth in pass-rush win rate.
“They’ve done a great job,” LaFleur said of Walker and Tom. “We’ve seen growth from them every week. Certainly, they’ve gone against some pretty formidable fronts throughout the course of the season and we’ve got another one right in front of us. We’re going to have to continue to show that growth and improvement, and we’ve got a great challenge that lies ahead.”
The Packers will then have to deal with All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner. With at least 130 tackles, four forced fumbles, four interceptions, ten passes defensed, and two sacks, he was the only player in the league to possess all of these stats. His exceptional ability will shut the passing windows in addition to challenging the running game.
“He’s the leader of the defense and, obviously, he’s one of the best linebackers in the NFL,” Love said. “He does a lot for that defense. You see him all over the tape. He’s flying around, making plays left and right. So, he’s a big-time player that you’ve got to know where he’s at and find ways to take advantage of what they do.
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