Thus, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the best starting pitcher available, did not sign a 12-year, $325 million contract with the Dodgers late on Thursday night, and the Mets were not able to acquire him. For the remainder of the winter, what does that mean? For Flushing’s long-term plan? Given how much focus the team placed on Yamamoto during the early offseason, the club’s failure to sign him will have a significant effect on future developments.
Not only in this year’s environment, but generally speaking, Yamamoto was a rare free agent; a 25-year-old with elite talent seldom makes it to the open market. Yes, the Mets chased him due to his potential, but they also did so because they saw him as a match for their long-term plan to open in 2025 with a more competitive window. For this reason, in an attempt to court Yamamoto, baseball operations president David Stearns and owner Steve Cohen took a plane to Japan. Yamamoto was a unicorn of a free agent, extremely similar to Shohei Ohtani in many respects but very different.
What happens next? The starting point for the Mets’ incomplete roster is…
Is it Jordan Montgomery or Blake Snell?
Nope. That doesn’t seem to be New York’s goal, but it’s possible that Cohen becomes impatient and orders a chase of one of the next-best starters available. (And when Cohen stated, “We’re going to be thoughtful and not impulsive and thinking about sustainability over the intermediate long-term, but not focused on winning the headlines over the next week,” in an interview with the New York Post on Friday, he hardly sounded restless.)
Because of this, you can virtually rule out the courtships of pitchers Shōta Imanaga, Montgomery, and Snell, who are all over 30, and who may pursue deals that last five years or more. Things may change if the market collapses for one of those two pitchers, but it’s unlikely that the market will implode anytime soon given that it just arranged contracts worth over $1 billion for Ohtani and Yamamoto.
Another introductory pitch?
The Mets will be shopping here, and they have been shopping here already. They signed pitcher Luis Severino, who is gifted but frequently injured, to a one-year deal earlier this winter. Adrian Houser, a pitcher with a one-year remaining contract who has a high floor and low ceiling, was acquired by them just this past week. The Mets will likely want to acquire someone with a comparable short-term commitment to complete their rotation. Consider the $26 million, two-year deal that the organization awarded José Quintana during the previous summer.
Free-agent prospects Frankie Montas, Sean Manaea, Michael Lorenzen, and Hyun Jin Ryu are a few that may choose one- or two-year contracts. To shop on this aisle, look for the Mets.
Lucas Giolito, who just had a season in which he posted a 7.13 ERA in the second half, also seems like a buy-low option. Giolito, who is only 29 years old, may be open to taking a one-year pillow contract in order to prove his worth again. The Mets could be interested at the proper price in a pitcher who was voted Cy Young every year from 2019 to 21—even if he needs a multiyear contract. Unlike, say, Snell’s, his market is more likely to remain reasonable.
The outfield, what about it?
Though it’s easy to believe that the money saved on Yamamoto might go for a Teoscar Hernández or Jorge Soler, an outfield/DH bopper, the Mets don’t seem to be very interested in either guys thus far this summer. Both of those players, who are 31 years old, seem likely to be able to secure three-year or longer contracts. In the outfield, the Mets would want to limit their contracts to short terms in order to maintain roster flexibility and future payroll flexibility. The advantages are clear: backing off now would, for instance, position the Mets to challenge Juan Soto hard the following winter.
Michael A. Taylor and Kevin Kiermaier, two center fielders in their 30s who are physically fit enough to play every day and force Brandon Nimmo into a corner, are two names who do meet the description. By the time top prospects Jett Williams and Drew Gilbert are prepared to make an impact in the Major Leagues, they would also have left.
But is that enough hitting?
Perhaps, perhaps not. The Mets, although possessing quality on paper, finished 20th in the Major Leagues in terms of runs per game the previous season. Almost all of that offense will be back. Now that Ronny Mauricio will most likely miss the entire season due to a torn right ACL, the Mets might bolster it by signing a third baseman like Justin Turner. Alternatively, they may bring in a full-time DH like J.D. Martinez, who is still effective at 36 years old.
What about the bullpen?
The Mets have already acquired three relievers on Minor League deals with invitations to camp, traded for another, and signed one reliever, Jorge López, to a major league contract. From now on, this is essentially how things will go; the Mets will most likely sign a few more players to guaranteed contracts, and there are still a ton of candidates out there, but they won’t likely sign Josh Hader and pay the huge, Edwin Díaz-like contract that he will demand.
As with the rest of the roster, the prevailing theme is caution for the time being, with plenty of opportunities to spend Cohen’s money in the future.