Is there a need to approach discussions about NFL prospects in a different manner?
The NFL draft is often referred to as a “crap shoot,” emphasizing the unpredictability of success and failure in selecting players. Despite extensive evaluations, teams, like the New York Jets, frequently make suboptimal choices.
When evaluating NFL draft prospects, individuals often struggle to convey nuanced opinions on players, such as predicting success in specific systems or identifying potential flaws at the next level.
Recently, Baseball HQ released prospect rankings for the New York Mets in the 2024 MLB season. The grading system, featuring a number and a letter (e.g., 9C for top prospect Jett Williams), initially raised questions about its meaning. Baseball HQ later clarified the system in a concise and understandable manner.
PLAYER POTENTIAL RATING
Scale of (1-10) representing a player’s upside potential
10 – Hall of Fame-type player
9 – Elite player
8 – Solid regular
7 – Average regular
6 – Platoon player
5 – Major League reserve player
4 – Top minor league player
3 – Average minor league player
2 – Minor league reserve player
1 – Minor league roster filler
PROBABILITY RATING
Scale of (A-E) representing the player’s realistic chances of achieving their potential
A – 90% probability of reaching potential
B – 70% probability of reaching potential
C – 50% probability of reaching potential
D – 30% probability of reaching potential
E – 10% probability of reaching potential
The grading system assigns a number (1 to 10) for potential, with a higher number indicating greater potential. Additionally, a letter (A to E) signifies the likelihood of a player reaching their potential, with letters closer to A indicating higher probability. This concise format provides a quick and clear expression of a player’s upside and the evaluator’s confidence in their potential. For instance, a grade like 9C denotes a player with significant potential (9) and a 50% chance of reaching that ceiling. This system is considered effective for encapsulating the crucial aspects of scouting.
It seems plausible that NFL front offices are already employing grading scales akin to this one. The author expresses a desire for fans and analysts to adopt a similar system, emphasizing the importance of not just acknowledging a player’s talent but also articulating confidence in its translation to the next level. The example of cornerback Sauce Gardner, rated as a 9B prospect, illustrates a case where talent is evident with low risk. Conversely, quarterback Zach Wilson, labeled a 9D/E prospect, is cited as having clear talent but with significant uncertainties that may hinder success at the next level. The letter component of the grade facilitates a nuanced understanding of risk profiles, allowing for differentiation between players with similar talent but varying levels of risk. The author believes that this grading system provides a straightforward way to communicate evaluations of both upside and confidence, potentially enhancing draft discussions within fan communities. The author commits to using this system and encourages others to consider its adoption for more effective discussions within the amateur scouting community.