As the College Football Playoff race tightens with two weeks left in the regular season, ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) has unleashed a game-changing projection for Saturday’s Penn State-Nebraska clash, handing the struggling Nittany Lions a narrow path to bowl eligibility while slamming the door on their faint playoff revival. Drawing from 20,000 simulations factoring in current form, injuries, and schedule strength, FPI forecasts a Penn State win by 4.2 points with a 70.2% victory probability—enough to push the Lions’ postseason odds to 52% if they cap the regular season with a Rutgers W. But for Nebraska (7-3, 4-3 Big Ten), a road upset in Happy Valley—where the Huskers are 3-6 all-time—would skyrocket their New Year’s Six bowl chances to 28%, per updated models, while burying Penn State’s at just 8% and extending their nightmare skid.
This FPI verdict is pure dynamite in a Big Ten that’s already a meat grinder: Penn State (4-6, 1-6 Big Ten), limping off a six-game slide snapped by a 28-10 MSU rout, clings to fading CFP whispers (down to 1.9% odds post-UCLA loss) but controls its bowl fate with two winnable home finales. Nebraska, bowl-secure under Matt Rhule (four wins in five), chases an 8-4 finish and a Citrus or Holiday Bowl bid, but FPI sees their 29.8% upset shot as uphill against a revived PSU defense (22nd in yards allowed at 316.1/game). “It’s do-or-die for Penn State—no margin for error,” ESPN’s Bill Connelly warns, noting the Lions’ 0-5 ATS skid but home edge (6-3 vs. NU in State College). A Huskers stunner? It echoes their 2020 30-23 upset and injects chaos, potentially leapfrogging Nebraska into at-large conversations while dooming interim coach Terry Smith’s resume.
Why This Matchup Could Reshape the Big Ten Bubble
Preseason darling Penn State entered 2025 with 63.8% CFP odds and an 8.8% Big Ten title shot, but a brutal stretch (losses to Oregon in OT, Indiana, UCLA, Northwestern, Ohio State) cratered them to 7.2-4.8 projected record and 0% conference odds. Now, FPI’s sims give them a 1.0% chance to win out—hinging on this Senior Day thriller (tied 10-8 series) and Rutgers—but a Nebraska loss drops bowl hopes to sub-20%. For the Huskers, preseason No. 25 with 10.3% CFP odds and 7.5 wins projected, reality bites: Three losses (OSU, Iowa, Oregon) cap them at 95.6% bowl probability but just 7.8% for playoff glory. Rhule’s crew (17-4 SU in last 21 home games, but road woes) thrives on balance (70th in yards at 385.8/game), yet freshman QB TJ Lateef’s low QBR (63.5) post-Raiola’s fibula fracture faces PSU’s pass rush revival (elite last two weeks).
The ripple? Penn State’s early-season resume (close calls vs. top-10 Oregon, OSU; two TDs vs. Indiana) still haunts CFP debates—Yurachek cited their Oregon loss as a Duck strength—but a second straight W vaults them into Music City or Pinstripe Bowl talks. Nebraska’s road W, meanwhile, builds 2026 CFP momentum (Rhule 2-0 vs. PSU as coach), strengthening the Big Ten’s at-large pool amid chaos from Oklahoma, Tennessee, and bubble foes like Penn State. FPI eyes Penn State’s run game (Singleton/Allen terrorizing NU’s 90th-ranked rush D at 161.1 yards allowed) vs. Nebraska’s third-down efficiency (29th offense at 46%) as the decider, but both QBs’ inexperience (Grunkemeyer efficient, no TOs vs. MSU) screams low-scoring grinder (O/U 44.5).
Quick Game Snapshot
• When/Where: Saturday, Nov. 22, 7 p.m. ET, Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pa.; 107,000 capacity; clear, mid-40s forecast).
• Watch It: NBC (Noah Eagle, Todd Blackledge, Kathryn Tappen); stream on Peacock/Fubo/YouTube TV.
• Betting Buzz: PSU -9.5 (opened -7.5, now -10 consensus), O/U 44.5; FPI sims favor Lions covering in 55% of runs.
• Key Injury Watch: Nebraska—QB Dylan Raiola (out, fibula); Penn State—DE Dani Dennis-Sutton (questionable, but 2 sacks vs. MSU).
Leave a Reply