With just two weeks left in the regular season, ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) has dropped a seismic projection for Saturday’s No. 8 Oklahoma vs. No. 22 Missouri showdown, forecasting a gritty Sooners victory that could catapult OU into the 12-team College Football Playoff. Based on 20,000 simulations incorporating team strength, schedule rigor, and recent form, FPI gives Oklahoma a razor-thin 64% win probability—edging Missouri by 3.6 points in a defensive slugfest projected at 41.5 total points.For the Sooners (8-2, 4-2 SEC), it’s a “win-and-in” lifeline: A victory bumps their CFP odds to 55%, per USA Today projections, locking in a potential home first-round game if they handle LSU next.A Missouri upset? It plummets OU’s chances to a dismal 3%, per The Athletic’s model, effectively ending their playoff dream despite resume-boosting road triumphs over Tennessee and Alabama.
This FPI call isn’t just numbers—it’s a bombshell for the SEC’s chaotic playoff picture. Oklahoma enters as a 7.5-point favorite (moneyline -290), riding a top-5 defense that’s allowed just 14.8 points per game and forced 18 turnovers. Missouri (7-3, 3-3 SEC), fresh off RB Ahmad Hardy’s historic 300-yard, 3-TD explosion against Mississippi State, counters with the SEC’s No. 1 total defense (277.5 yards allowed) and a top-10 rush attack (220 yards/game). But the Tigers are 0-3 against ranked foes, including home losses to Ohio State and Oregon, and FPI sees their 35.8% upset shot as slim against OU’s home dominance (17-4 SU in last 21 at Memorial Stadium).“Oklahoma controls its destiny,” warns USA Today’s Bill Bender, noting Mizzou’s 0-3 ATS as underdogs.
Why This Game Shakes the CFP Bracket
Oklahoma’s surge—from October skid to 34.6% playoff odds post-Alabama—hinges on this Border War renewal (tied 7-7-1 since 2012). Brent Venables’ squad boasts three top-25 wins (Tennessee, Alabama, Ole Miss), but a third loss would mirror Tennessee’s dire 1.8% odds, per ESPN analytics. For Eli Drinkwitz’s Tigers, bowl-bound and eyeing a New Year’s Six berth (e.g., Citrus), a road W in Norman—echoing their 30-23 upset last year—would be a program-definer, handing OU its first home SEC loss since joining the league. Broader ripple: An OU win strengthens the SEC’s at-large pool (currently Georgia, Texas, Alabama, Ole Miss, Tennessee jostling for spots), while a Mizzou stunner injects chaos, potentially elevating bubble teams like Notre Dame or Penn State.
FPI’s full-season sims paint Oklahoma finishing 10-2 (9.7% chance to sweep out), but Missouri’s run game—uncharted territory for OU’s elite front seven (under 100 rush yards allowed/game)—could flip the script. “The Sooners have faced three top-11 passing offenses, but Missouri is the first top-11 rushing attack,” notes AOL Sports, highlighting Hardy’s 1,200+ yards and 12 TDs. QB John Mateer’s dual-threat (2,150 pass yds, 650 rush yds) vs. Mizzou’s secondary (top-20 completion % allowed) sets up a chess match, but OU’s 32 sacks and red-zone mastery (100% scoring) tilt simulations their way.
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